@ARTICLE{26543116_95089549_2013, 
	author = {Alexander Giglavy and Alexander Sokolov and Gulnara Abdrakhmanova and Alexander Chulok and Vasily Burov}, 
	keywords = {, long-term forecast, priority areas, trends, global challenges, S&T capacitiesinformation and communication technologies},
	title = {Long-Term Trends in the ICT Sector},
	journal = {Foresight and STI Governance},
	year = {2013},
	volume = {7},
	number = {3},
	pages = {6-24},
	url = {https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/en/2013-7-3/95089549.html},
	publisher = {},
	abstract = {Alexander Giglavy — Deputy Director for Science, Moscow Lycee no 1533 (Information Technologies). Address: Moscow Lycee no 1533 (Information Technologies), 16 Lomonosovsky av., Moscow, 119296, Russian Federation. E-mail: giglavy@yandex.ru Alexander Sokolov — Deputy Director, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, and Director, International Research and Educational Foresight Center, National Research University — Higher School of Economics. Address: National Research University — Higher School of Economics, 20 Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation. E-mail: sokolov@hse.ruGulnara Abdrakhmanova — Director, Centre for Statistics and Monitoring of Information Society, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University — Higher School of Economics. Address: National Research University — Higher School of Economics, 20 Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation. E-mail: gabdrakhmanova@hse.ruAlexander Chulok — Head, Division for S&T Foresight, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University — Higher School of Economics. Address: National Research University — Higher School of Economics, 20 Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation. E-mail: achulok@hse.ruVasily Burov — Chairman of the Board, WikiVote! Address: office 2, 7 bld. 1, Fadeeva str., Moscow, 125047, Russian Federation. E-mail: burov@wikivote.ruInformation and communication technologies (ICT)  radically transform many areas of human activity thus attracting great attention of researchers. However, the dynamics of ICT development depends on the global challenges and broader trends that define long-term S&T priorities. What factors that will influence the future of the ICT industry? What technological solutions will determine its characteristics in the next 15-20 years? These and similar questions were considered by the HSE ISSEK specialists in co-operation with the colleagues from other research entities while investigating trends in S&T at the global and national levels. The experts have analyzed socio-economic and S&T challenges affecting the ICT sector, advanced R&D fields, markets for innovative products and services, estimated the «windows of opportunities» for Russia. As a result, the strategic directions of blueprint research which ensure the basis for the creation of innovative products and new markets for the medium- and long-term (beyond 2020) perspective. Foresight results have been validated by the representatives of leading companies, research centers, universities and international organizations.Among the solutions expected in the period up to 2030 are the prototypes of systems implementing the new computing principles and multi-language software for extraction and formalization of knowledge, technologies dealing with «big data», new analytical tools (personal analytic systems, means of the real time data processing, mobile analytics, etc.). Markets for novel technology solutions are expected to be rapidly growing in healthcare, energy, engineering and transport, as well as in personal usage of ICT products and services.The study allows to conclude that in the medium to long term, the ICT sector will retain a high growth dynamic and will have transformative impact on virtually all areas of human life. The life cycle of technologies, related products and services will shorten. In this context, R&D development plays a crucial role for keeping up with competitors. Russian science has a certain potential in much of the considered areas, although one can hardly perceive Russia as gaining global leadership. A breakthrough level of research is observed, for example, in telecommunication technologies (communication, networking and content distribution). },
	annote = {Alexander Giglavy — Deputy Director for Science, Moscow Lycee no 1533 (Information Technologies). Address: Moscow Lycee no 1533 (Information Technologies), 16 Lomonosovsky av., Moscow, 119296, Russian Federation. E-mail: giglavy@yandex.ru Alexander Sokolov — Deputy Director, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, and Director, International Research and Educational Foresight Center, National Research University — Higher School of Economics. Address: National Research University — Higher School of Economics, 20 Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation. E-mail: sokolov@hse.ruGulnara Abdrakhmanova — Director, Centre for Statistics and Monitoring of Information Society, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University — Higher School of Economics. Address: National Research University — Higher School of Economics, 20 Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation. E-mail: gabdrakhmanova@hse.ruAlexander Chulok — Head, Division for S&T Foresight, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University — Higher School of Economics. Address: National Research University — Higher School of Economics, 20 Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation. E-mail: achulok@hse.ruVasily Burov — Chairman of the Board, WikiVote! Address: office 2, 7 bld. 1, Fadeeva str., Moscow, 125047, Russian Federation. E-mail: burov@wikivote.ruInformation and communication technologies (ICT)  radically transform many areas of human activity thus attracting great attention of researchers. However, the dynamics of ICT development depends on the global challenges and broader trends that define long-term S&T priorities. What factors that will influence the future of the ICT industry? What technological solutions will determine its characteristics in the next 15-20 years? These and similar questions were considered by the HSE ISSEK specialists in co-operation with the colleagues from other research entities while investigating trends in S&T at the global and national levels. The experts have analyzed socio-economic and S&T challenges affecting the ICT sector, advanced R&D fields, markets for innovative products and services, estimated the «windows of opportunities» for Russia. As a result, the strategic directions of blueprint research which ensure the basis for the creation of innovative products and new markets for the medium- and long-term (beyond 2020) perspective. Foresight results have been validated by the representatives of leading companies, research centers, universities and international organizations.Among the solutions expected in the period up to 2030 are the prototypes of systems implementing the new computing principles and multi-language software for extraction and formalization of knowledge, technologies dealing with «big data», new analytical tools (personal analytic systems, means of the real time data processing, mobile analytics, etc.). Markets for novel technology solutions are expected to be rapidly growing in healthcare, energy, engineering and transport, as well as in personal usage of ICT products and services.The study allows to conclude that in the medium to long term, the ICT sector will retain a high growth dynamic and will have transformative impact on virtually all areas of human life. The life cycle of technologies, related products and services will shorten. In this context, R&D development plays a crucial role for keeping up with competitors. Russian science has a certain potential in much of the considered areas, although one can hardly perceive Russia as gaining global leadership. A breakthrough level of research is observed, for example, in telecommunication technologies (communication, networking and content distribution). }
}