TY  - JOUR
TI  - History and Modern Landscape of Futures Studies
T2  - Foresight and STI Governance
IS  - Foresight and STI Governance
KW  - corporate strategies
KW  - futures studies
KW  - history of science
KW  - sustainable development
KW  - megatrends
KW  - science of complex systems
KW  - complexity
KW  - scenario planning
KW  - weak signals
KW  - uncertainty
KW  - competencies
AB  - The challenges the futures studies face are particularly complex, interconnected, and contradictory, and cannot be resolved using linear approaches. Prognostic science needs tools matching the new contextual complexity, which would allow to capture a much wider range of driving forces, and their potential effects, in a non-linear perspective, to improve the accuracy of forecasts and quality of strategies. Through a retrospective analysis of prognostic science and Foresight studies, the paper presents the prerequisites for enriching the relevant methodology with the complexity science concepts. Relevant Foresight competences are identified. Case studies are presented, which can serve as practical guidelines to master the creative potential of complexity during particularly unstable periods. Special attention is paid to the emerging megatrend of the rising deglobalisation, which can radically affect the implementation of previously developed strategies. The key conclusion from the presented analysis is that skilful handling of complexity opens up major opportunities for creative growth.
AU  - Marina Boykova
AU  - Helena Knyazeva
AU  - Mikhail Salazkin
UR  - https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/en/2023-17-4/879970547.html
PY  - 2023
SP  - 80-91
VL  - 17