Foresight and STI Governance

Evaluating the Impact of Inward FDI & Economic Growth Upon the Carbon Emissions of South Korea

Farrukh Navaz — 2025-08-15

This study aims to evaluate the impact of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth on carbon emissions in South Korea, a nation committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. Given the dual role of inward FDI and economic growth in fostering economic development and potentially increasing carbon emissions, this study explored the complex relationships among these variables. This study uses annual time-series data from 1990 to 2021, including carbon emissions (CO₂) as the dependent variable and GDP, inward FDI, and renewable energy consumption as explanatory variables. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test was employed to assess the long-term relationships between these variables. The empirical analysis confirms the long-run relationship among FDI, economic growth, renewable energy use, and carbon emissions in South Korea. This finding underscores the necessity of integrating sustainable investment practices and renewable energy solutions to mitigate the environmental impact of economic growth and FDI. Unlike previous studies, this study uniquely combines the effects of FDI, GDP, and renewable energy on carbon emissions within the context of South Korea’s ambitious carbon neutrality commitment by 2050. Applying a robust ARDL model provides nuanced insights into the interactions between economic factors and sustainability efforts, offering actionable data to policymakers aiming to balance economic and environmental goals. These results highlight the importance of sustainable policies that balance economic growth and environmental preservation, especially in the context of South Korea’s carbon neutrality goals.

Systematic Review of Open Innovation Approaches for Industrialisation in Developing Economies

Wongani Langa — 2025-08-15

Industrialization remains a cornerstone of economic transformation in developing countries, yet progress is often constrained by fragmented innovation systems, resource limitations, and institutional barriers. Open innovation offers an alternative paradigm by promoting knowledge flows across organizational and sectoral boundaries. This systematic literature review critically examines how open innovation partnership models are conceptualized, implemented, and adapted to support industrialization in low- and middle-income countries. The results demonstrate a progressive shift from linear innovation approaches to more networked, ecosystem-based configurations, with inbound, outbound, and coupled innovation strategies increasingly evident. University-industry-government (UIG) partnerships, intermediary-facilitated collaborations, and digital platforms emerge as dominant mechanisms. SMEs are pivotal actors but encounter persistent capability and resource constraints. Key enablers include institutional trust, leadership commitment, absorptive capacity, and digital infrastructure. Conversely, barriers such as weak policy coherence, infrastructural deficits, and fragmented coordination inhibit innovation outcomes. The analysis also identifies emerging trajectories, notably the integration of AI and digital technologies in innovation ecosystems and the evolving role of intermediaries. This review highlights critical research gaps, particularly the need for empirically validated frameworks and SME-centric strategies and offers insights to inform policy design and the development of inclusive, adaptive innovation systems aligned with sustainable industrialization objectives.

Spawning Butterflies –Value Flow across Startup Lifecycle Stages

Juby Jose — 2025-08-15

Startup firms are dynamic entities that undergo fundamental transformations over their lifecycle. Such transformations are the result of value flow to newer firm-related factors. However, startup valuation factors are often used fluidly in multi-stage empirical studies resulting in confounding results. The objective of this study is to disentangle determinants of startup valuation across the early and late stages of a startup’s lifecycle. By doing so, the study identifies valuation factors that increase, decrease, or maintain relevance across lifecycle stages. We conducted a literature survey of entrepreneurship studies that analyzed startup valuation and its determinants and carefully classified these into early-stage and late-stage factors. By seeking stage-level interpretations, we introduce the “relevance hierarchy” for valuation factors across lifecycle stages. We uncovered persistent and volatile factors, i.e., some factors persistently affect firm valuation while others exhibit volatility in its effects. For practitioners, we derive a meta-model of startup valuation that is unique to the two lifecycle stages – early and late. The main contribution of this study is in conducting the literature review on startup valuation through the “looking glass” of the lifecycle stage and this vantage point will allow practitioners to develop focused models of valuation that avoid confounding effects.

How to radically innovate in emerging defense ecosystems?

Sepehr Ghazinoory — 2025-08-15

Radical innovation is the most critical driver for latecomers' ability to catch up with global leaders. In this regard, while scholars doubt the emergence of radical innovations in the Global South, various success stories prove otherwise. However, the intensification of geo-strategic and geo-economic competition between great powers and the occurrence of a global technological revolution promises a fundamental transformation in the nature and distribution of power, with radical innovation as an urgent priority for the world's military powers. Accordingly, this article first develops a radical innovation framework for emerging defense ecosystems based on a content analysis of 27 interviews with defense innovation experts. The drivers and sub-dimensions of the framework are then prioritized with fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), according to a survey answered by 67 experts. Culture (the importance of radical innovation, organizational culture, and collaboration capacity), governance (policy framework, institutional framework, and organizational structure), resources (infrastructure, human capital, and financial resources), and processes (knowledge management, project management, and open innovation) are the proposed drivers for radical innovation in emerging defense ecosystems. Also, innovation resources are identified as the most crucial driver, with human capital, financial resources, policy framework, and institutional structure as the most critical sub-dimensions, respectively.

Formation Modelling for Inter-Agent Negotiation and Collaboration with the Same Value System

Pri Hermawan — 2025-05-24

Collaboration is essential in integrating resources, data, and information to ensure organizational performance and competitive advantage. Inter-agent collaboration between employees or members from different teams in the organizations is crucial to achieving the goals. The success factor is related to mental processes between interacting agents which are influenced by the conditions of their team. This study aims to analyze inter-agent collaboration based on sharing the same value system influenced by various organizational elements which are considered as variables in this study. Those are communication of organizational strategy, flat and hierarchical team organization structure, ambidextrous leadership of their team leaders, knowledge-intensive environment, and knowledge absorption. Given the complexity of the research, which seeks to examine agent dynamics within processes and their interactions with organizational environment elements, the study has adopted the Agent-based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) method. ABMS is highly effective for modeling and analyzing the intricate relationships and behaviors of agents, making it well-suited for exploring dynamic systems. As a recognized soft systems approach, ABMS aligns with the study’s objective of understanding complex organizational interactions. The method's strength lies in its ability to translate real-world conditions into computational models that simulate various organizational scenarios and dynamic conditions. To enhance this approach, the researchers developed a framework called DARMA, short for Development of Artificial Representative Designs in Modeling Agent-based and Simulation, which serves as a methodological advancement in the implementation of ABMS. Several findings of this study show that ambidextrous leadership of team leaders and different types of team organization structures affect inter-agent collaboration. Flat team structures produce higher inter-agent collaboration types than hierarchical team structures that produce more simple inter-agent collaboration types.

The Dark Side of ESG Ratings: Future Challenges for Financial Resources of Firms

Aykut Arslan — 2025-08-15

This paper critically examines the methodological inconsistencies of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) ratings and their impact on financial decision-making. While ESG scores are intended to guide investors and policymakers toward responsible business practices, discrepancies in rating methodologies raise concerns about their reliability and strategic value. Using a conceptual and theoretical framework, this paper integrates perceptions from institutional theory, signaling theory, and the sociology of valuation to explore how ESG ratings shape corporate sustainability narratives. It also draws on empirical studies to demonstrate inconsistencies in ESG scores and their consequences for financial markets.
The study identifies three primary flaws in ESG ratings: (1) Divergent methodologies lead to inconsistent scores across rating agencies; (2) Firms prioritize ESG disclosure over actual sustainability improvements, fostering greenwashing; and (3) The lack of transparency in ESG rating methodologies distorts investment signals, leading to mispricing risks and misaligned sustainability incentives. Additionally, the absence of strong social indicators within ESG frameworks may contribute to the ineffectiveness of these ratings in truly capturing corporate sustainability.
This paper does not provide primary empirical analysis but synthesizes existing literature to propose a refined understanding of ESG ratings. It highlights the need for future research on regulatory standardization, AI-driven ESG assessments, and independent verification mechanisms. The findings suggest that investors should not rely solely on ESG ratings when making financial decisions. Instead, they should combine multiple sustainability metrics and qualitative assessments to avoid misleading investment choices. A lack of ESG rating standardization risks undermining public trust in sustainable finance and corporate responsibility efforts. Furthermore, the insufficient emphasis on social indicators within ESG ratings may hinder their ability to promote genuine corporate accountability and social progress. This paper contributes to the growing critique of ESG rating methodologies by arguing that without regulatory intervention, ESG scores will continue to serve as unreliable indicators of corporate sustainability.

Agency and Narrative Creativity as Tools in Transformative Transitions

Pavel Sorokin — 2025-08-15

In the context of various global crises following one another, transformational transitions of major socioeconomic systems to new development models are becoming a frontier of scientific discussions. There is growing need for actors capable of efficiently managing such comprehensive radical transformations focused on innovation. Building up human agency of the transformational type (TA) has always been a very relevant issue, but the demand for this competence has dramatically increased in today’s highly turbulent, variable, and unstable world against the background of the increased adoption of the inherently complex Industry 4.0. and 5.0 development models, and the exhausted potential of management tools which have been effectively applied in previous, relatively stable contexts.
This paper explores the possibilities for developing and scaling up TA and proposes approaches to working with this complex and elusive phenomenon to facilitate successful development. On the basis of various concepts (including a personally developed one) and case studies, the author opens up the TA “black box”, bringing clarity to the process of the proper development of rare, transformational abilities. The conclusions reveal the sources of management systems’ renewal potential, which will help organizations successfully adapt to the increasingly complex flow of change.