Foresight and STI Governance

Addressing the Limitations of the Futures Cone: Introducing the Adaptive Futures Mesh

Alireza Hejazi — 2025-03-25

This paper aims to address the limitations of traditional strategic foresight methodologies, specifically the Futures Cone (FC), by introducing and evaluating a novel framework called the Adaptive Futures Mesh (AFM). The study employs a conceptual analysis, drawing on systems thinking, complexity science, and participatory design principles to develop the AFM. The AFM is structured around key components including a dynamic mesh network, uncertainty gradients, adaptive feedback loops, and an emergence engine. The analysis finds that the AFM offers a more robust approach to navigating uncertainty by explicitly incorporating unknown unknowns (dark matter nodes). It visualizes cascading impacts, emphasizing human agency, and enables continuous adaptation through feedback loops. Research limitations include the lack of empirical validation and potential challenges in implementing the AFM across diverse contexts. However, the AFM offers significant practical implications for strategic planning. It enables organizations to move beyond prediction and cultivate futures-readiness. Socially, the AFM promotes more inclusive and equitable futures by democratizing foresight and empowering stakeholders to shape their own destinies. The originality and value of this paper lie in its articulation of a novel, adaptive framework that enhances strategic resilience in facing complexity and multiple crises.

AI in U.S.-China Rivalry: Scenarios and Policies for Small States

Alexis Colmenarez — 2025-05-27

Emerging disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) are fueling global rivalry by changing the power dynamics among countries. This article examines the implications of AI for the prospects of defense competition between major powers such as the United States and China. It presents possible scenarios of such competition through 2050 and their implications for smaller countries with limited geopolitical influence as they adapt to the increasingly complex context these processes create. The scenarios provide not only structured pictures of possible futures but also a strategic canvas for developing proactive national security policies in the changing international landscape. In the context of rapid technological advances and strategic competition, smaller countries face both challenges and opportunities as they navigate their own paths. The proposed recommendations aim to “level the playing field” and help such states not only address the challenges posed by AI in the military sphere but also seize the opportunities arising from technological shifts. The findings presented can serve as a basis for developing national security strategies even in the context of institutional and infrastructural limitations. Decision makers will be able to navigate and effectively act in a complex, changing arena, the dynamism of which is largely determined by AI technologies.

Scenarios of Development for Non-Ferrous Metal Markets Under the Spread of Alternative Fuel Vehicles

Igor Makarov — 2025-03-25

Advances in technology, growing concern about climate change, and the setting of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets in many countries have contributed to a significant increase in the demand for alternative fuel vehicles globally over the last decade. Electric vehicles, which include all-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), are the most promising alternative to conventional hydrocarbon vehicles. It is very likely that in some regions of the world electric vehicles will dominate the market as early as the 2030s. However, compared to internal combustion engine vehicles, the production of electric vehicles requires a wider range of non-ferrous metals, which may become one of the bottlenecks for further electrification of transportation. This paper presents a scenario analysis of the development of the electric vehicle market, and then calculates the key metal requirements for each of the scenarios considered. The results of this analysis reveal that, between now and 2050, the accelerating spread of electric vehicles will have a significant impact on the cobalt market, a moderate impact on the lithium, nickel, and copper markets, and a minor impact on the manganese and aluminum markets. The results of the analysis demonstrate that the increasing use of electric vehicles in the coming decades opens up significant opportunities for countries specializing in the production of non-ferrous metals, including Russia, to increase their supply to global markets.

Appendices

Exploring Relationship Dynamics in Entrepreneurial Ecosystems and Their Impact on Innovation

Damaris Chieregato Vicentin — 2025-03-25

This study investigates how key entrepreneurial ecosystem (EE) factors interact and are reconfigured in response to economic turbulence. Using Russia as a case study, we analyze the systemic dynamics of EE through the lens of the Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) theory, identifying the most influential factors driving ecosystem resilience. A quantitative approach was employed using the fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method. Data were collected from highly experienced experts, including academics and market professionals with extensive knowledge of urban EEs in Russia. Their evaluations provided a robust understanding of causal relationships and the adaptability of EE factors under economic instability. The regulatory environment emerged as the primary driver of EE reconfiguration, significantly influencing other factors. Human capital and access to capital were also critical for sustaining entrepreneurship in turbulent contexts, whereas innovation was highly dependent on external conditions rather than acting as an independent driver. These findings highlight the need for adaptive policies to enhance EE resilience, offering a novel methodological framework for understanding EE adaptability in emerging economies.

Modelling and Forecasting the Diffusion of Unicorn Startups

Lamia Bouaziz — 2025-03-25

Unicorn startups have become symbols of entrepreneurial success and fundamental drivers of innovation and wealth creation. This study examines the diffusion process of unicorns across eight countries (the US, China, India, the UK, Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Sweden) and three industries (Fintech, Health, and Transport). The aim of this research is to model and forecast the diffusion of unicorn startups using three- and four-parameter Logistic and Gompertz sigmoid growth models, leveraging data from the Dealroom database. By addressing this research gap, the study seeks to provide valuable information for policymakers and investors regarding the ultimate potential number of unicorns and the time to saturation. The findings indicate that the Gompertz model generates highly optimistic estimates of unicorn saturation levels, while the Logistic model produces more realistic projections for both fitting existing data and forecasting future trends. Specifically, the three- parameter Gompertz model is suited for analyzing unicorn diffusion in China. The three- parameter Logistic model is appropriate for analyzing unicorn diffusion in the USA, the UK, and all studied sectors. Meanwhile, the four-parameter Logistic model is the best model for explaining unicorn diffusion in India, Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Sweden. The results also reveal that India has the highest estimated speed of unicorn diffusion (97%), while the US exhibits the highest saturation level (6,241 unicorns). Sectoral analysis shows that Fintech has the lowest estimated diffusion speed (43.1%), but the highest saturation level (1,630 unicorns). Our forecasting analyses suggest that all selected countries and sectors — except the US and Fintech — are likely to reach unicorn saturation by around 2030. These findings provide critical insights for planning, regulation, policy formulation, and portfolio decision-making.

The Role of Digital Leadership Capabilities in Enterprise-Wide Digital Transformation

Philipp Goetzinger — 2025-05-27

In a situation of rapid technological development and the world’s transition to a new technological regime, organizations are faced with the need for digital transformation (DT). This process goes beyond the simple implementation of advanced technologies and involves the management of processes of increased complexity, deep recombinations of business processes, structures, methods of external communications, and so on. However, these factors are not considered by most organizations. In other words, DT is underestimated in terms of complexity, duration, and intensity of adaptation stress. Only 10%-20% of organizations succeed in such a transformation at the first attempt, with large companies failing most often. This study analyzes the reasons why most of these initiatives fail to achieve their goals. Particular emphasis is placed on the link between digital competencies of managers and the impact of technological reforms. For this purpose, an array of relevant publications on the topic of DT over the last five years was analyzed. According to the results, the majority of organizations enter DT without proper preparation in the form of early revision of competencies and corporate culture, going beyond the established models of thinking and behavior, which previously provided competitiveness, but in the new context cease to work. Principles that increase the chances of successful digital transformation are formulated. This article contributes to the growing body of knowledge on management practices in transformational transitions.

Patent Trends Analysis as a Basis for Innovation Strategies

Nestor Brandão Neto — 2025-03-25

The analysis of patent trends reveals significant patterns that have the potential to drive technological advancements in specific domains, particularly by identifying emerging areas and research gaps. This study examines how the economic appropriation of research and development outcomes mirrors the dynamics of the innovation process and informs strategic planning, policy formulation, and innovation management. By conducting a detailed analysis of the economic appropriations made by public science and technology institutions within Brazil’s aerospace and defense sectors, we identify how these trends can inform proactive approaches to technological innovation. The institutions studied exhibit research and development and innovation dynamics that are finely tuned to the specific needs and trends of their technological fields, illustrating the increasing diversity of research and development interests and the complexity of the innovation ecosystems in which they operate. Ultimately, the success of innovation policies and strategies hinges on the ability to anticipate technological trends, strategically invest in high-potential areas, and efficiently transfer technologies to the productive sector. This ensures that institutions are well-positioned to respond quickly and effectively to technological changes and market opportunities, fostering sustainable development and technological progress.

Dynamic Capabilities: Towards Assessment of Futures Literacy Competency

Roly Gutarra Romero — 2025-02-28

In recent years, the topic of dynamic capabilities has acquired new content. As higher-order competencies, they allow one to constantly update oneself with new knowledge, flexibly recombine resources, and adapt to a rapidly changing environment. A key part of dynamic capabilities is working with the future, starting with basic skills - futures literacy (FL). Since this competence is key to the human resources of organizations, its development seems important, starting with university programs. For a long time, there were no objective tools for measuring the degree of their mastery. The authors of this article attempt to fill this problem by offering an innovative approach to identifying and standardizing the assessment of FL competence. Six theoretical dimensions of FL are proposed as a basis for grouping assessment criteria and compiling final assessments and their interpretation. The corresponding dimensions, such as FL sub-competencies that include foresight, the assessment of future scenarios, and decision-making under uncertainty, can be assessed independently of each other. The ability to measure the initial level of FL will allow for the development of more effective educational programs for the development of this competence.