Keywords
scenario planning
intuitive logics methodology
conceptual consumption
How to Cite
Abstract
Scenario development is a widely used tool to reduce uncertainty while making decisions in high velocity environments. Nevertheless, many managers have a blinkered obsession with short-term performance objectives out of a fear of an unpredictable future, as well as a sheer inability to conceive of alternative futures generated in scenario planning exercises. Consequently, the latter have generated little value-added.
The paper analyses the factors determining the willingness of decision makers to actively engage in processes of scenario planning. We suggest that effective incentives to promote interest in scenario planning can be found if we consider decision makers as ‘consumers’ of certain ideas, concepts, and expectations. In particular, we put forward the hypothesis that the selection of appropriate targets for scenario planning, a commitment to achieving them, expectations of positive outcomes, and increasing the frequency of scenario planning exercises are very likely to generate increased interest from managers and stakeholders in developing scenarios.
Our results have been tested by means of an intuitive and logical approach to scenario planning. We believe that these findings can serve as a springboard for future empirical research that could test the proposed hypotheses by using other in demand methodologies, including probabilistic modified trends, competitive intelligence, and cross sectional effects analysis.
References
Amer M., Daim T.E., Jetter A. (2013) A review of scenario planning // Futures. Vol. 46. P. 23-40.
Ariely D., Norton M.I. (2009) Conceptual consumption // Annual Review of Psychology. Vol. 60. P. 475-499.
Armor D.A., Taylor S.E. (1998) Situated optimism: Special outcome expectancies and self-regulation // Advances in Experimental Social Psychology. Vol. 30. P. 309-379.
Bradfield R., Wright G., Burt G., Cairns G., Van Der Heijden K. (2005) The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning // Futures. Vol. 37. № 8. Р. 795-812.
Cairns G., Sliwa M., Wright G. (2009) Problematizing international business futures through a critical scenario method // Futures. Vol. 42. № 9. Р. 971-979.
Cesario J., Grant H., Higgins E.T. (2004) Regulatory fit and persuasion: Transfer from feeling right // Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. Vol. 86. P. 388-404.
Chen M., Bargh J. (1997) Non-conscious behavioural confirmation processes: The self-fulfilling consequences of automatic stereotype activation // Journal of Experimental Social Psychology. Vol. 43. P. 719-726.
Cunha M., Palma P., Costa N. (2006) Fear of foresight: Knowledge and ignorance in organizational foresight // Futures. Vol. 38. № 8. Р. 942-955.
Fang X., Singh S., Ahluwalia R. (2007) An examination of different explanations for the mere exposure effect // Journal of Consumer Research. Vol. 34. № 1. Р. 97-103.
Ferraro R., Bettman J.R., Chartrand T.L. (2009) The power of strangers: The effect of incidental consumer brand encounters on brand choice // Journal of Consumer Research. Vol. 35. № 5. P. 729-741.
Fishbach A., Dhar R. (2005) Goals as excuses or guides: The liberating effect of perceived goal progress on choice // Journal of Consumer Research. Vol. 32. P. 370-377.
Fiske S., Taylor S. (2008) Social cognition: From brains to culture. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Fitzsimons G., Morwitz V. (1996) The effect of measuring intent on brand: Level purchase behavior // Journal of Consumer Research. Vol. 23. P. 1-11.
Foster M.J. (1993) Scenario planning for small businesses // Long Range Planning. Vol. 26. № 1. Р. 123-129.
Gollwitzer P.M., Moskowitz G.B. (1996) Goal effects on action and cognition // Social psychology: Handbook of basic principles / Eds. E.T. Higgins, A.W. Kruglanski. New York: Guildford. P. 361-399.
Higgins E.T. (2000) Making a good decision: Value from fit // American Psychology. Vol. 55. P. 1217-1230.
Higgins E.T. (2005) Value from regulatory fit // Current Directions in Psychological Science. Vol. 14. P. 209-213.
Hodgkinson G.P., Healey M.P. (2008) Toward a (pragmatic) science of strategic intervention: Design propositions for scenario planning // Organization Studies. Vol. 29. № 3. Р. 435-457.
Hong J.W., Lee A.Y. (2008) Be fit and be strong: Mastering self-regulation through regulatory fit // Journal of Consumer Research. Vol. 34. P. 682-695.
Jung Y., Pawlowski S.D. (2009) Consuming bits: An exploratory study of user goals for virtual consumption. Paper presented at the ICIS 2009 Conference. Режим доступа: http://aisel.aisnet.org/icis2009/31, дата обращения 15.07.2015.
Koestner R., Lekes N., Powers T.A., Chicoine E. (2002) Attaining personal goals: Self-concordance plus implementation intentions equals success // Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. Vol. 83. № 1.Р. 231-244.
Mackay B., McKiernan P. (2006) Back to the future: History and the diagnosis of environmental context // International Studies of Management and Organisation. Vol. 36. № 3. Р. 93-109.
Morwitz V., Johnson E., Schmittlein D. (1993) Does measuring intent change behaviour? // Journal of Consumer Research. Vol. 20. P. 46-61.
Oettingen G., Gollwitzer P.M. (2001) Goal setting and goal striving // Blackwell Handbook of Social Psychology: Intra-Individual Processes / Eds. A. Tesser, N. Schwarz. London: Blackwell. P. 329-348.
Olson J.M., Roese N.J., Zanna M.P. (1996) Expectancies // Social psychology: Handbook of basic principles / Eds. E.T. Higgins, A.W. Kruglanski. P. 211-238.
Sarpong D., Maclean M. (2011) Scenario thinking: A practice-based approach for the identification of opportunities for innovation // Futures. Vol. 43. № 10. Р. 1154-1163.
Sarpong D., O'Regan N. (2014) The organizing dimensions of strategic foresight in high-velocity environment // Strategic Change. Vol. 23. № 3-4. Р. 125-132.
Schlange L. (1997) Building blocks for the strategic conversation // Futures. Vol. 29. № 9. Р. 877-880.
Simmons J.P., Nelson L.D. (2006) Intuitive confidence: Choosing between intuitive and non-intuitive alternatives // Journal of Experimental Psychology. Vol. 135. № 3. P. 409-428.
Van der Heijden K. (1996) Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation. Chichester, New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Varum C.A., Melo C. (2010) Directions in scenario planning literature: A review of the past decades // Futures. Vol. 42. P. 355-369.
Vaughn L.A., Malik J., Schwartz S., Petkova Z., Trudeau L. (2006) Regulatory fit as input for stop rules // Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. Vol. 91. № 4. Р. 601-611.
Weiner B. (1986) An attributional theory of motivation and emotion. New York: Springer-Verlag.
Whittlesea B.W. (1993) Illusions of familiarity // Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning. Vol. 19. P. 1235-1253.
Wright G., Cairns G. (2011) Scenario Thinking: Practical approaches to the future. Basingstoke, New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Zajonc R.B. (1968) Attitudinal effects of mere exposure // Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. Vol. 9. № 2. Р. 1-27.
Zeelenberg M., Van Dijk W.W., Manstead A.S., van der Pligt J. (2000) On bad decisions and disconfirmed expectancies: The psychology of regret and disappointment // Cognition & Emotion. Vol. 14. № 4. Р. 521-541.
Zeelenberg M., van Dijk W.W., van der Pligt J., Manstead A.S.R., van Empelen P., Reinderman D. (1998) Emotional reactions to outcomes of decisions: The role of counterfactual thought in the experience of regret and disappointment // Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. Vol. 75. P. 117-141.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.