X-Events as Determinants of the Sixth Kondratieff Wave
PDF (Русский)

Keywords

forecasting
Kondratieff cycles
Sixth Kondratieff Wave
X-event
social mood
global trends
critical point

How to Cite

CastiJ. (2013). X-Events as Determinants of the Sixth Kondratieff Wave. Foresight and STI Governance, 7(1), 58-71. https://doi.org/10.17323/1995-459X.2013.1.58.71

Abstract

Many experts believe that our civilization is on the verge of shifting to a new long-term economic cycle — the sixth Kondratieff wave. Increasing diffusion and convergence of ICT, bio- and nanotechnologies, movements favoring «green» technologies and business models and holistic health, among others, are typically viewed as drivers of the new wave. The majority of futurists tend to look favorably upon these supposed trends, ways of resolving major challenges facing mankind. Others, including the author of this paper, argue that there are risks related to the development of new technologies, as well as factors of natural and social origin, which may impede the implementation of rosy scenarios. Implied is a reference to so-called «extreme events» (X-events) — hardly predictable, often unexpected short-term phenomena, whose intervention reverses the current trend in an opposite direction and may cause huge destructive effects. Their occurrence is pre-determined by a set of matured contextual prerequisites (primarily the complexity gap between governing system and addressed challenges, as well as changing social mood) and the random factor playing a role of a catalyst.

Using the complexity theory, the author evaluates the ability of a number of extreme factors to disrupt the abovementioned megatrends driving the sixth Kondratieff wave. Events and processes, such as global climate change, epidemics, famine, collapse of the Internet, and enslavement of human artificial intelligence, may produce scenarios that are totally different from those projected by most experts. However, as shown in the paper, the ability to predict and diligently consider the possible X-events followed by adoption of appropriate measures may allow the prevention or at least diminution of the devastating impact of such events.

https://doi.org/10.17323/1995-459X.2013.1.58.71
PDF (Русский)

References

Alexander M. (2002) The Kondratieff Cycle. Lincoln, NE: Writer's Club Press.

Allianz (2010) The Sixth Kondratieff -Long Waves of Prosperity. Munich: Allianz Global Investors.

Bogdanski A., Dubois O., Jamieson C., Krell R. (2011) Making Integrated Food-Energy Systems Work for People and Climate: An Overview. FAO Environment and Natural Resources Management Working Paper № 45. Rome: UN Food and Agricultural Organisation. Режим доступа: http://www.fao.org/docrep/013/i2044e/i2044e.pdf (дата обращения 10 января 2013 г.).

Casti J. (2010) Mood Matters: From Rising Skirt Lengths to the Collapse of World Powers. New York: Copernicus Books.

Casti J. (2012) X-Events: The Collapse of Everything. New York: HarperCollins, Morrow.

Durden T. (2011) The Coming ‘‘New World Order'' Revolution: How Things Will Change in the Next 20 Years -A Kondratieff Cycle Perspective. Zero-Hedge. Режим доступа: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/coming-new-world-order-revolution-how-things-will-change-next-20-years-kondratieff-cycle (дата обращения 6 июля 2011 г.).

European Commission (2006) The impact of ageing on public expenditure: Projections for the EU25 Member States on pensions, health care, longterm care, education and unemployment transfers (2004-2050). Special Report № 1/2006. Режим доступа: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication6654_en.pdf (дата обращения 15 ноября 2012 г.).

Fagan B. (2001) The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made History, 1300-1850. New York: Basic Books.

Galasiewski M. (2010) Mood in the Middle East: A Historical Perspective. Режим доступа: http://www.socionomics.net/free-reports/1012/Mood-In-The-Middle-East.aspx (дата обращения 14 октября 2012 г.).

Joy B. (2000) Why the Future Doesn't Need Us//Wired. Issue 8.04 (April). Режим доступа: http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html (дата обращения 14 января 2013 г.).

Kendall Р. (2005) Israeli Forces Block Protest March on Gaza. Режим доступа: http://www.sociotimes.com/archives/2005/07/israeli_forces.aspx (дата обращения 25 октября 2012 г.).

Kendall Р. (2006) President Lula: The Boy from Brazil Is Back. Режим доступа: http://www.sociotimes.com/archives/2006/03/president_lula.aspx (дата обращения 17 сентября 2012 г.).

Kurzweil R. (2005) The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. New York: Penguin Books.

Moody J., Nogrady B. (2010) The Sixth Wave. Sydney: Random House.

Schumpeter J. (1942) Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. New York: Harper & Brothers.

Tainter J. (1988) The Collapse of Complex Societies. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Vinge V. (1993) The Coming Technological Singularity//Whole Earth Review (Winter issue). Р. 88-95. Режим доступа: http://www.wholeearth.com/issue-electronic-edition.php?iss=2081 (дата обращения 22 декабря 2012 г.).

Wilenius M. (2011) Leadership in the Sixth Wave. Helsinki: Kauppalehti publications (in Finnish).

Wolfe N., Dunavan C., Diamond J. (2007) Origins of Major Human Infectious Diseases//Nature. № 447 (17 May). Р. 279-283.

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.