Mapping Futures Studies
PDF (Русский)

Keywords

foresight
Forward-looking activities (FLA)
mapping
FLA players
FLA practices
FLA outcomes
SMART Futures

How to Cite

PopperR. (2012). Mapping Futures Studies. Foresight and STI Governance, 6(2), 56-74. https://doi.org/10.17323/1995-459X.2012.2.56.74

Abstract

In recent decades Foresight and other forward-looking activities (FLA) gained ground as a tool of science, technology and innovation (STI) policy. The number of FLA studies is globally rising. To some extent, foresight is governed by context-depended issues; however there are also common features in the objectives, methodology, and recommendations made. Mapping allows codifying and analyzing a bulk of FLA experiences gained worldwide. This in turn will contribute to enhancing performance of such activities and therefore of STI policy as a whole. The paper provides rationales for Futures Studies mapping, considers related opportunities and challenges, reviews lessons learned from early mapping efforts. It focuses on the large-scale EU-funded mapping project “European Foresight Platform” (EFP). Using this project as illustration, the paper describes mapping routines, the selected indicators of mapped Foresight initiatives, including their objectives, participants, target groups, methodologies, outcomes and recommendations. It discusses the potential and the limitations of particular mapping tools as well as possible applications of gained knowledge. Basing on mapping results, policy-makers, for example, are able to identify gaps to be addressed with relevant policy tools, Mapping also allows Foresight practitioners to develop strategies for further research and shape expert networks for their implementation.

https://doi.org/10.17323/1995-459X.2012.2.56.74
PDF (Русский)

References

Armstrong J.S. (2001) Principles of forecasting: A handbook for researchers and practitioners. London: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Austrian Government (2011) ERA Portal Austria, Joint Activities, Grand Challenges. http://www.era.gv.at/space/11442/directory/11794.html.

Butter M., Brandes F., Keenan M., Popper R. (2008) Evaluating Foresight: An introduction to the European Foresight Monitoring Network // Foresight. Vol. 10. № 6. Р. 3-15.

Clarke A. (1962) Tales of Ten Worlds. Harcourt Brace.

EFP (2010) EFP Online Foresight Guide. http://www.foresight-platform.eu/community/foresightguide/what-is-foresight.

ERA EXPERT GROUP (2008) Challenging Europes Research: ERA Rationales for the European Research Area. Brussels: European Commission.

European Commission (2009) Impact Assessment Guidelines, SEC (2009) 92. Brussels.

European Commission (2010) European Forward-Looking Activities: EU Research in Foresight and Forecast. European Commission Directorate-General for Research Communication, Unit B-1049. Brussels.

European Commission (2011) European Forward-Looking Activities: Building the Future of Innovation Union and ERA. Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Directorate B - European Research Area, Unit B.5 - Social Sciences and Humanities, EUR 24796. Brussels.

Eurostat (2008) NACE Rev. 2: Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community. Luxembourg: European Communities.

Georghiou L., Cassingena H.J. (2008) FTA for Research and Innovation Policy and Strategy. Paper presented at the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 16-17 October 2008.

Georghiou L., Cassingena H.J., Cooke P., Cozzens S., Dearing A., Henriques L., Langer J., Laredo P., Sanz Menendez L., Weber M., Popper R. (2008) Challenging Europes Research: Rationales for the European Research Area (ERA). Report of the ERA Expert Group, European Commission, DG Research, EUR 23326. Brussels.

Georghiou L., Keenan M. (2008) Evaluation and Impact of Foresight // Georghiou L., Cassingena H.J., Keenan M., Miles I., Popper R. (eds.) The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. P. 376-399.

IAIA (2009) What Is Impact Assessment? International Association for Impact Assessment. http://www.iaia.org/publicdocuments/specialpublications/What%20is%20IA_web.pdf.

IKNOW (2011) About the iKNOW project. http://www.iknowfutures.eu.

IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Johnston R., Cagnin C. (2011) The influence of future-oriented technology analysis: Addressing the Cassandra challenge // Futures. Vol. 43. P. 313-316.

Johnston R., Sripaipan C. (2008) Foresight in Industrialising Asia (Chapter 11) // Georghiou L. et al. (eds) Handbook of Technology Foresight. Edward Elgar.

Keenan M., Abbott D., Scapolo F., Zappacosta M. (2003) Mapping Foresight Competence in Europe: The EUROFORE Pilot Project. IPTS Technical Report Series, EUR 20755 EN. Seville, Spain.

Keenan M., Butter M., Sainz G., Popper R. (2006) Mapping Foresight in Europe and Other Regions of the World: The 2006 Annual Mapping Report of the EFMN. Delft: TNO.

Keenan M., Popper R. (2008) Comparing foresight style in six world regions // Foresight. Vol. 10. № 6. Р. 16-38.

Nugroho Y., Saritas O. (2009) Incorporating network perspectives in foresight: A methodological proposal // Foresight. Vol. 11. № 6. P. 21-41.

OECD (2002) Frascati Manual: Proposed Standard Practice for Surveys on Research and Experimental Development. Paris.

POST (2009) Futures and Foresight. Postnote 332. London: The Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology.

Popper R. (2008a) Foresight Methodology // Georghiou L., Cassingena H.J., Keenan M., Miles I., Popper R. The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Р. 44-88.

Popper R. (2008b) How are Foresight Methods Selected? // Foresight. Vol. 10. № 6. Р. 62-89.

Popper R. (2009) Mapping Foresight: Revealing how Europe and other world regions navigate into the future. EFMN. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, European Commission.

Popper R. (2011) Wild Cards and Weak Signals Informing and Shaping Research and Innovation Policy. Paper presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) «FTA and Grand Societal Challenges - Shaping and Driving Structural and Systemic Transformations», Seville, 12-13 May 2011.

Popper R., Georghiou L., Keenan M., Miles I. (2010) Evaluating Foresight. Cali: Universidad del Valle.

Popper R., Keenan M., Butter M. (2005) Mapping Foresight in Europe and other Regions of the World: The EFMN Annual Mapping Report 2004-2005. Manchester: University of Manchester.

Popper R., Keenan M., Miles I., Butter M., Sainz G. (2007) Global Foresight Outlook 2007: Mapping Foresight in Europe and the rest of the World. Brussels: European Commission.

Popper R., Medina J. (2008) Foresight in Latin America // Georghiou L., Cassingena H.J., Keenan M., Miles I., Popper R. (eds.) The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Р. 256-286.

Popper R., Teichler T. (2011) Practical Guide to Mapping Foresight and Forward-Looking Practices, Players and Outcomes. Report for the European Foresight Platform (EFP). Manchester: University of Manchester.

Porter M.E. (1980) Competitive Strategy. New York: Free Press.

SESTI (2011) SESTI - Scanning for Emerging Science and Technology Issues. Project Information. http://sesti.info.

Salo A., Gustafson R. (2004) A Group Support System for Foresight Processes // International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy. Vol. 1. № 3-4. Р. 249-269.

Viereck G. (1930) Glimpses of the Great. New York: Macauley.

Вишневский К.О., Карасев О.И. (2010) Прогнозирование использования новых материалов с использованием методов Форсайта // Форсайт. Т. 4. № 2. С. 58-67.

ван Рай В. (2012) Зарождающиеся тенденции и «джокеры» как инструменты формирования и изменения будущего // Форсайт. Т. 6. № 1. С. 73-84.

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.