Foresight Scenarios for the Iran’s Petrochemical Industry

Abstract

Iran’s vast oil and gas reserves and strategic location present a unique opportunity for its petrochemical industry. However, the industry faces a dynamic future influenced by rapid and complex economic, political, technological, and regulatory changes. This study presents the findings of a foresight research project on the Iranian petrochemical industry in collaboration with Tehran’s industry chambers (TCCIM and APEC), utilizes scenario planning — a methodology grounded in the established Global Business Network (GBN) model — to explore various potential futures. Extensive data collection forms the foundation of this study. Primary and secondary data are gathered through a rigorous multi-method approach encompassing in-depth library research, benchmark analyses of similar industries around the world, and insightful interviews with industry experts. By employing this approach, the research identifies the key factors that will determine the future trajectory of Iran’s petrochemical industry. Following the data collection phase, a comprehensive analysis categorizes these factors based on their importance and degree of uncertainty. This analysis allows researchers to prioritize the most critical drivers that will ultimately define the industry’s future. Drawing upon this understanding, the research then constructs four distinct scenarios, each depicting a unique narrative for the industry’s potential trajectory. These scenarios — “Phoenix” (potential resurgence), “Glimmer” (moderate growth), “Swamp” (stagnation), and “Amphibian” (struggle for survival) — offer a comprehensive spectrum of possibilities. Additionally, the research establishes leading indicators to anticipate the specific conditions that might trigger each scenario. The research does not stop at simply outlining these potential futures. It transcends this by engaging a select group of industry executives in scenario simulations. Through these simulations, the research identifies the key opportunities and threats inherent in each potential future. This comprehensive approach empowers stakeholders with a deeper understanding of the various paths the industry might take, allowing them to formulate informed policies and strategies for a successful future in the ever-changing global landscape.