Ключевые слова
глобальное моделирование
база данных глобальных изменений
экстраполяция трендов
сценарий «обычная динамика»
насыщение
энергетический Форсайт
топливный баланс
изменение землепользования
самоорганизующиеся системы
Как цитировать
Аннотация
Распространенные подходы к прогнозированию «многослойных» социально-экономических систем линейными подходами мало применимы в условиях нарастающей сложности. Возникает необходимость учитывать экспоненциальные, скачкообразные изменения контекста. В статье представлен новый метод количественного прогнозирования на основе Базы данных о глобальных изменениях (Global Change Data Base, GCDB). Этот многофункциональный инструментарий дает возможность анализировать тренды в глобальной экономической системе, позволяя глубже понять ее динамику и создает информационную основу для разработки сценариев развития энергетики, экономики и землепользования на общемировом и национальном уровнях. Представлен ландшафт переходов для стран с разным уровнем развития и секторов экономики в нелинейной динамике.
Литература
Abler R., Adams J.S., Gould P. (1971) Spatial organisation. The geographer's view of the world, Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
Ahamer G. (2008) Virtual Structures for mutual review promote understanding of opposed standpoints. The Turkish Online Journal of Distance Education, 9(1), 17-43.
Ahamer G. (2012) Geo-Referenceable Model for the Transfer of Radioactive Fallout from Sediments to Plants. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 223(5), 2511-2524. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11270-011-1044-x
Ahamer G. (2014) Kon-Tiki: Spatio-temporal maps for socio-economic sustainability. Journal for Multicultural Education, 8(3), 206-223. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/JME-05-2014-0022
Ahamer G. (2015) Applying student-generated theories about global change and energy demand. International Journal of Information and Learning Technology, 32(5), 258-271. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJILT-01-2015-0002
Ahamer G. (2019) Mapping Global Dynamics. From Local Pollution to Global Evolution. Heildelberg, Dordrecht, London, New York: Springer. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-51704-9
Ahamer G. (2021) Can we synthesise different development theories? Social Evolution and History, 20(2), 79-108,. DOI: https://doi.org/10.30884/seh/2021.02.04
Ahamer G., Jekel T. (2010) Make a Change by Exchanging Views. In: Cases on Transnational Learning and Technologically Enabled Environments (eds. S. Mukerji, P. Tripathi), Hershey, PA: IGI Global, 1-30. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-61520-749-7.ch001
Ahamer G., Kumpfmüller K.A. (2013) Education and literature for development in responsibility: Partnership hedges globalization. In: Handbook of Research on Transnational Higher Education (eds. S. Mukerji, P. Tripathi), Hershey, PA: IGI Global, 526-584. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-4666-4458-8.ch027
Akaev A., Sadovnichy V., Korotayev A. (2012) On the dynamics of the world demographic transition and financial-economic crises forecasts. European Physical Journal: Special Topics, 205(1), 355-373. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2012-01578-2
Bader L., Bereuther T., Deutsch E., Edlinger J., Füreder S., Kaspar E., Köttstorfer M., Mautner C., Rossegger C., Samonig A., Samonig S., Schuster C., Witz G., Zotter V., Ahamer G. (2013) Quality Improvements in Curricula for Global Studies. Multicultural Education and Technologies Journal, 7(2/3), 113-126,. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/17504971311328035
Bader L., Bereuther T., Deutsch E., Edlinger J., Füreder S., Kaspar E., Köttstorfer M., Mautner C., Rossegger C., Samonig A., Samonig S., Schuster C., Witz G., Zotter V., Rozanov A., Ilyin V., Ahamer G. (2014) Multiparadigmatic Humanities: Curricula for Global Studies. International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, 4(6), 314-337. http://www.ijhssnet.com/journals/Vol_4_No_6_1_April_2014/34.pdf and also https://istina.msu.ru/workers/6530980/, дата обращения 11.04.2021.
Baumann M., Kuemmerle T., Elbakidze M., Ozdogan M., Radeloff V.C., Keuler N.S., Prishchepov A.V., Kruhlov I., Hostert P. (2011) Patterns and drivers of post-socialist farmland abandonment in Western Ukraine. Land Use Policy, 28(3), 552-562. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2010.11.003
Bertalanffy L. (1968) General System Theory: Foundations, Development, Applications, New York, NY: Braziller.
Brans J., Mareschal B. (1994) The PROMCALC & GAIA decision support system for multicriteria decision aid. Decision Support Systems, 12(4-5), 297-310. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-9236(94)90048-5
Castells M. (1996) The Information Age: Economy, Society and Culture, Cambridge, MA: Blackwell.
Chen R., Ye C., Cai Y., Xing X., Chen Q. (2014) The impact of rural out-migration on land use transition in China: Past, present and trend. Land Use Policy, 40, 101-110. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2013.10.003
Christian D. (2005) Macrohistory: The Play of Scales, Social Evolution & History, 4(1), 22-59.
Christian D. (2018) Origin Story: A Big History of Everything, New York, Bostion, London Little: Brown and Company.
Du Y., Yang C. (2014) Demographic transition and labour market changes: Implications for economic development in China. Journal of Economic Surveys, 28(4), 617-635. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12072
Duraković E., Feigl B., Fischer B., Fleck C., Galler L.-M., Heinrich J., Kulmer K., Kurzweil B., Scholze M., Sperl R., Unterköfler R., Matzenberger J., Remele K., Ahamer, G. (2012) Dialogic Global Studies for Multicultural Technology Assessment. Multicultural Education & Technology Journal 6(4), 261-286. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/17504971211279527
Estep D. (2002) Constant Relative Rate of Change and the Exponential. In: Practical Analysis in One Variable. Undergraduate Texts in Mathematics (eds. S. Axler, F.W. Gehring, K.A. Ribet), Heidelberg, Dordrecht, London, New York: Springer. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/0-387-22644-3_30
Fagua J.C., Baggio J.A., Ramsey R.D. (2019) Drivers of forest cover changes in the Chocó-Darien Global Ecoregion of South America. Ecosphere, 10(31), e02648. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2648
Feron P.H.M. (2016) Introduction. In: Absorption-Based Post-combustion Capture of Carbon Dioxide (ed. P.H.M. Feron), Sawston (UK): Woodhead Publishing, pp. 3-12. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-08-100514-9.00001-9
Fischer A.M. (2008) Population invasion versus urban exclusion in the Tibetan areas of Western China. Population and Development Review, 34(4), 631-662. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2008.00244.x
Fischer K., Hauck G., Boatcă M. (eds.) (2016) Handbuch Entwicklungsforschung, Berlin: Springer. https://www.springer.com/de/book/9783658047894, дата обращения 18.04.2022.
Galor O. (2012) The demographic transition: Causes and consequences. Cliometrica, 6(1), 1-28. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11698-011-0062-7
Grau H.R., Aide M. (2008) Globalization and land-use transitions in Latin America. Ecology and Society, 13(2), 16. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-02559-130216
Grechukhina I. (2021) Socio-economic and environmental effects of renewable energy policy in Russia. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 15(1-3), 157-170.
Haggett P. (2001) Geography - A global synthesis, Harlow: Pearson Education.
Hurtt G.C., Chini L.P., Frolking S., Betts R.A., Feddema J., Fischer G., Fisk J.P., Hibbard K., Houghton R.A., Janetos A., Jones C.D., Kindermann G. (2011) Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500-2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands. Climatic Change, 109(1), 117-161. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0153-2
Hurtt G.C., Frolking S., Fearon M.G., Moore B., Shevliakova E., Malyshev S., Pacala S.W., Houghton R.A. (2006) The underpinnings of land-use history: Three centuries of global gridded land-use transitions, wood-harvest activity, and resulting secondary lands. Global Change Biology, 12(7), 1208-1229. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01150.x
IIASA (1998) Global Energy Perspectives in 1998 (IIASA/WEC Report), Cambridge (UK): Cambridge University Press. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/cgi-bin/ecs/book_dyn/bookcnt.py, дата обращения 26.03.2022.
IPCC (2002) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), Geneva: International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). https://www.ipcc.ch/report/emissions-scenarios/, дата обращения 14.01.2022.
IRENA (2017a) Russia Can Nearly Quadruple Share of Renewable Energy by 2030 Tweet, Abu Dhabi, Bonn, New York: International Renewable Energy Agency. https://www.irena.org/newsroom/pressreleases/2017/Apr/Russia-Can-Nearly-Quadruple-Share-of-Renewable-Energy-by-2030, дата обращения 19.04.2022.
IRENA (2017b) Renewable Energy Prospects for the Russian Federation (REmap working paper), Abu Dhabi, Bonn, New York: International Renewable Energy Agency. https://www.irena.org/publications/2017/Apr/Renewable-Energy-Prospects-for-the-Russian-Federation-REmap-working-paper, дата обращения 16.04.2022.
IRENA (2022) World Energy Transitions Outlook: 1.5°C Pathway, Abu Dhabi, Bonn, New York: International Renewable Energy Agency. https://www.irena.org/publications/2022/Mar/World-Energy-Transitions-Outlook-2022, дата обращения 16.04.2022.
Jeníček V. (2010) Population problem in the future - Challenges, questions. Agricultural Economics, 56(3), 97-107. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17221/91/2009-AGRICECON
Jäger J., Springler E. (2012) Ökonomie der internationalen Entwicklung - Eine kritische Einführung in die Volkswirtschaftslehre (Series Geschichte - Entwicklung - Politik, GEP14), Wien: Mandelbaum.
Kaya Y., Keiichi Y. (1997) Environment, energy, and economy: Strategies for sustainability, Tokyo: United Nations University Press. https://archive.unu.edu/unupress/unupbooks/uu17ee/uu17ee00.htm.
Kondratieff N. (1984) Long Wave Cycle, Boston, MA: E.P. Dutton.
Kravdal Ø., Rindfuss R.R. (2008) Changing relationships between education and fertility: A study of women and men born 1940 to 1964. American Sociological Review, 73(5), 854-873. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/000312240807300508
Küstenmacher M., Haberer T., Küstenmacher W.T. (2010) God 9.0, Gütersloh (Germany): Gütersloher Verlagshaus. http://gott90.de/god-9.0-english, дата обращения 17.02.2022.
Lambin E.F., Meyfroidt P. (2011) Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity. PNAS, 108(9), 3465-3472. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1100480108
Lambin E.F., Meyfroidt P. (2019) Land use transitions: Socio-ecological feedback versus socio-economic change. Land Use Policy, 27(2), 108-118. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.09.003
Liao S. (2005) Expert system methodologies and applications-a decade review from 1995 to 2004. Expert Systems with Applications, 28(1), 93-103. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2004.08.003
Long H. (2014), Land consolidation: An indispensable way of spatial restructuring in rural China. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 24(2), 211-225. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-014-1083-5
Long H., Liu Y., Hou X., Li T., Li Y. (2014) Effects of land use transitions due to rapid urbanization on ecosystem services: Implications for urban planning in the new developing area of China. Habitat International, 44, 536-544. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2014.10.011
Long H., Qu Y. (2018) Land use transitions and land management: A mutual feedback perspective. Land Use Policy, 74, 111-120. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.03.021
Lovelock J. (1988) The Ages of Gaia. A Biography of Our Living Earth, New York, London: W.W. Norton & Co.
Lu C., Lee T., Chiu C. (2009) Financial time series forecasting using independent component analysis and support vector regression. Decision Support Systems, 47(2), 115-125. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2009.02.001
MacHaris C., Turcksin L., Lebeau K. (2012) Multi actor multi criteria analysis (MAMCA) as a tool to support sustainable decisions: State of use. Decision Support Systems, 54(1), 610-620. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2012.08.008
Macedo M.N., DeFries R.S., Morton D.C., Stickler C.M., Galford G.L., Shimabukuro Y.E. (2012) Decoupling of deforestation and soy production in the southern Amazon during the late 2000s. PNAS, 109(4), 1341-1346. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1111374109
Marchetti C., Nakicenovic N. (1979) The Dynamics of Energy Systems and the Logistic Substitution Model (Report RR-79-13), Laxenburg: Austria International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. http://www.cesaremarchetti.org/archive/scan/MARCHETTI-028_pt.1.pdf, дата обращения 23.01.2022.
Mattiussi A., Rosano M., Simeoni P. (2014) A decision support system for sustainable energy supply combining multi-objective and multi-attribute analysis: An Australian case study. Decision Support Systems, 57(1), 150-159. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2013.08.013
Meadows D., Meadows D., Randers J., Behrens III W. (1992) The Limits to Growth, New York: Universe Books.
Meyfroidt P., Roy Chowdhury R., de Bremond A., Ellis E.C., Erb K.-H., Filatova T., Garrett R.D., Grove J.M., Heinimann A., Kuemmerle T., Kull C.A., Lambin E.F. (2018) Middle-range theories of land system change. Global Environmental Change, 53, 52-67. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.08.006
Mills M., Rindfuss R.R., McDonald P., te Velde E. (2011) Why do people postpone parenthood? reasons and social policy incentives. Human Reproduction Update, 17(6), 848-860. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/humupd/dmr026
Munteanu C., Kuemmerle T., Boltiziar M., Butsic V., Gimmi U., Lubos Halada K.D., Király G., Konkoly-Gyuró É., Kozak J., Lieskovský J., Mojses M. (2014) Forest and agricultural land change in the Carpathian region - A meta-analysis of long-term patterns and drivers of change. Land Use Policy, 38, 685-697. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.01.012
Nielsen I., Fang C. (2007) Demographic shift and projected labour shortage in China. Economic Papers, 26(3), 231-236. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1759-3441.2007.tb00432.x
Nuissl H., Haase D., Lanzendorf M., Wittmer H. (2009) Environmental impact assessment of urban land use transitions - A context-sensitive approach. Land Use Policy, 26(2), 414-424. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2008.05.006
Peters G.P., Andrew R.M., Canadell J.G., Fuss S., Jackson R.B., Korsbakken J.I., Le Quéré C., Nakicenovic N. (2017) Key indicators to track current progress and future ambition of the Paris Agreement. Nature Climate Change, 7, 118-122. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3202
Powers J.S., Corre M.D., Twine T.E., Veldkamp E. (2011) Geographic bias of field observations of soil carbon stocks with tropical land-use changes precludes spatial extrapolation. PNAS, 108(15), 6318- 6322. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1016774108
Raskin P. (2012) Scenes from the Great Transition. Solutions, 3(4), 11-17. https://archive.ph/20130620204841/http://thesolutionsjournal.anu.edu.au/node/1140#selection-209.0-233.11, дата обращения 16.02.2022.
Raskin P. (2016) Journey to Earthland: The Great Transition to Planetary Civilization, Boston, MA: Tellus Institute.
Raskin P., Banuri T., Gallopín G., Gutman P., Hammond A., Kates R., Swart R. (2002) Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead (A Report of the Global Scenario Group), Boston, MA: Tellus Institute.
Raymo J.M., Park H., Xie Y., Yeung W.-J. (2015) Marriage and Family in East Asia: Continuity and Change. Annual Review of Sociology, 41(1), 150504162558008. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-073014-112428
Rounsevell M.D.A., Pedroli B., Erb K.-H., Gramberger M., Busck A.G., Haberl H., Kristensen S., Kuemmerle T., Lavorel S., Lindner M., Lotze-Campen H., Metzger M.J. (2012) Challenges for land system science. Land Use Policy, 29(4), 899-910. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2012.01.007
Rubenstein-Montano B., Liebowitz J., Buchwalter J., McCaw D., Newman B., Rebeck K. (2001) A systems thinking framework for knowledge management. Decision Support Systems, 31(1), 5-16. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-9236(00)00116-0
Sayamov Y. (2013) Education as a Global Soft Power for Sustainable Development. Campus-Wide Information Systems, 30(5), 346-357.
Seuring S. (2013) A review of modeling approaches for sustainable supply chain management. Decision Support Systems, 54(4), 1513-1520. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2012.05.053
Shen J., Spence N.A. (1996) Modelling urban-rural population growth in China. Environment and Planning A, 28(8), 1417-1444. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1068/a281417
Ssewamala F.M. (2015) Optimizing the demographic dividend in young developing countries: The role of contractual savings and insurance for financing education. International Journal of Social Welfare, 24(3), 248-262. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/ijsw.12131
Steiniger S., Bocher E. (2009) An overview on current free and open source desktop GIS developments. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 23(10), 1345-1370. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13658810802634956
Sterman J. (2000) Business Dynamics: Systems thinking and modelling for a complex world, New York: McGraw Hill.
Toft M.D. (2007) Population shifts and civil war: A test of power transition theory. International Interactions, 33(3), 243-269. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/03050620701449025
Upadhyay U.D., Gipson J.D., Withers M., Lewis S., Ciaraldi E.J., Fraser A., Huchko M.J., Prata N. (2014) Women's empowerment and fertility: A review of the literature. Social Science and Medicine, 115, 111-120. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2014.06.014
Vester F., von Hesler A. (1980) Sensitivitätsmodell. Umweltforschungsplan des Bundesministers des Innern: Ökologie und Planung in Verdichtungsgebieten, Frankfurt am Main: Regionale Planungsgemeinschaft Untermain.
Zhang J. (2002) Urbanization, population transition, and growth. Oxford Economic Papers, 54(1), 91-117. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/54.1.91
Ахамер Г. (2018) Применение глобальных баз данных в Форсайт-исследованиях энергетики и землепользования: метод GCDB. Форсайт, 12(4), 46-61. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17323/2500-2597.2018.4.46.61
Это произведение доступно по лицензии Creative Commons «Attribution» («Атрибуция») 4.0 Всемирная.