Аннотация
Современные социально-экономические и технологические системы постоянно усложняются, возрастают риски сбоев. Эффективное управление ими нуждается в инструментах, соответствующих новым вызовам. Умелый синтез ключевых парадигм, относящихся к теории сложности, позволяет обеспечить целостный охват системы, выявлять скрытые точки зарождения кризисов и катастроф, превентивно предпринимать корректирующие меры. В статье представлены обзор и сравнительная характеристика моделей восприятия сложных систем, которые экстраполируются на сферу менеджмента. С применением метода многослойного причинного анализа рассматривается кейс двух резонансных авиакатастроф компании Boeing. Предложена концепция «беспризорных систем», позволяющая вовремя уловить опасный дрейф системы в разрушительном направлении и предпринять необходимые управленческие меры.
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