Ключевые слова
текст-майнинг
тенденции технологического развития
траектория технологического развития
электронная торговля
программное обеспечение как услуга
SaaS
патентное цитирование
Как цитировать
Аннотация
Выявление технологических трендов — ключевой фактор конкурентоспособности, позволяющий воспользоваться потенциалом новых разработок еще до их появления. Освоение инструментов прогнозирования позволяет быть на несколько шагов впереди при создании новых продуктов и услуг. В статье представлен метод, комбинирующий интеллектуальный анализ текста (текст-майнинг) с экспертной оценкой для изучения краткосрочных тенденций технологического развития. В качестве примера для апробации выбрана бизнес-модель «программное обеспечение как услуга» (software-as-a-service, SaaS). Долгосрочные тренды выявляются путем анализа временных интервалов между научными исследованиями и прикладными разработками. Новый подход вносит вклад в развитие методологии технологического прогнозирования. Представлены пять основных направлений эволюции рассматриваемой области: виртуальные сети, гибридное облако, методы моделирования, мобильные и веб-приложения, свидетельствующие о переходе информационных систем в онлайн-формат. Наряду с бессрочным лицензированием получает распространение схема пользования программным обеспечением по подписке. Ускоренная разработка продуктов на основе мобильных решений преобразует подходы к хранению информации, прежде всего в базах данных.
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