Ключевые слова
портфельное моделирование
инновационные процессы
многокритериальный анализ решений
Как цитировать
Аннотация
В статье рассматривается практика учета широкого спектра мнений при решении ключевых задач Форсайта — определении приоритетов развития, формировании коллаборативных сетей и ориентиров будущего. Подобный опыт обретает особую важность в условиях дискретности технологического развития. Основным методом при этом служит выявление слабых сигналов. Предлагается повысить эффективность данного процесса за счет фокусирования на перспективных инновационных идеях, что позволит сформировать обоснованные ориентиры будущего. В качестве инструмента анализа подобных идей рекомендован скрининг робастных портфельных моделей (Robust Portfolio Models — RPM) — коллаборативный метод Форсайта. Он предусматривает генерацию, предварительное рассмотрение, многокритериальную оценку и портфельный анализ новых идей. Представлен опыт Финляндии, где рассматриваемый метод был применен в целях повышения эффективности работы постоянно действующего Форсайт-форума. Результаты проекта позволяют сделать вывод о высокой эффективности скрининга портфельных моделей в Форсайт-процессах и при разработке кооперационных исследовательских программ.
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