Аннотация
По мере расширения влияния Форсайт-исследований на формирование стратегий развития компаний, отраслей и стран возрастают требования к качеству и обоснованности их результатов. Как следствие, большое значение приобретают своевременное выявление и устранение возможных пробелов в организации Форсайт-проектов. Комплексная экспертиза Форсайта позволяет оценить эффективность проведенных мероприятий, проанализировать результаты с точки зрения решения о его дальнейшей реализации и выявить пути совершенствования подобных исследований. Несмотря на высокий интерес к вопросам оценки Форсайта, проявляемый стейкхолдерами различного уровня, общие принципы ее организации и проведения до сих пор не сформулированы, что сдерживает развитие данной деятельности и распространение успешного опыта.
Авторы статьи ставят задачу определения базовых элементов оценки национального Форсайта, соответствующих критериев и методов. В этой связи рассматриваются и систематизируются кейсы оценки национальных Форсайт-программ, представляющие ценность с точки зрения задач, объектов экспертизы, использованных методов и полученных выводов. Кроме того, анализируется опыт, накопленный в рамках теории и практики управления проектами.
Исследование показало, что ключевой мотивацией к проведению оценки является формирование обратной связи для национального Форсайта и определение направлений его дальнейшего развития. Итогом любой экспертизы становились корректировка «курса» Форсайта (в той или иной степени) и перечень извлеченных уроков для дальнейших проектов (например, упрощение процесса реализации, активное привлечение бизнеса и общественных организаций, признание необходимости более четкого соответствия методологии и состава участников задачам исследования и др.).
Полученные результаты могут служить основой формируемой в настоящее время единой методологии оценки национальных Форсайт-программ. Ее использование позволит проводить комплексный анализ Форсайта, обеспечит сопоставимость критериев оценки Форсайт-инициатив в разных странах, а также будет способствовать стандартизации оценочных процедур.
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