Ключевые слова
перспективное планирование
стратегическое планирование
творческое мышление
снижение размерности
сканирование горизонтов
методы Форсайта
подрывная динамика
устойчивость к воздействиям
Как цитировать
Аннотация
В статье предлагаются новые эпистемологические и методологические подходы к анализу нелинейной динамики систем устойчивости. Особое внимание уделяется адаптивной устойчивости и топологическим моделям при изучении четырех взаимосвязанных систем локальной стабильности. Разработаны индикаторы для оценки этапов эволюционных изменений и мер стратегического реагирования при анализе адаптивной устойчивости и стабильности. В модели подрывного роста подчеркивается значимость событий-джокеров и слабых сигналов как инструментов поиска новых ответов на внешние шоки. Проведенный анализ способствует выработке механизмов поддержания локальной стабильности и функциональности при подрывных изменениях. Модель устойчивого подрывного роста направлена на обеспечение адаптивной устойчивости и локальной стабильности с учетом существующих ограничений. Выделены аналитические аспекты мониторинга и передачи информации в реальном времени, что открывает перспективы применения искусственного интеллекта (ИИ), машинного обучения, объяснимого ИИ и значимых для рынков труда показателей связанности, рассмотренных во введении.
Литература
Ahamer G. (2020) Global history as a sequence of transient economic foci. Journal of Globalization Studies, 11(2), 3-22. http://dx.doi.org/10.30884/jogs/2020.02.01.
Aliprantis D. (2011) Fundamentals of wind energy conversion for electrical engineers, Ames, IA: Iowa State University.
Americo A., Johal J., Upper C. (2023) The energy transition and its macroeconomic effects (BIS Paper 135), Basel: Bank of International Settlements.
Bang A., Kuo C., Wen C., Cherh K., Ho M.-J., Cheng N.-Y., Chen Y.-C., Chen C.A. (2021) Quantifying coral reef resilience to climate change and human development: An evaluation of multiple empirical frameworks. Frontiers in Marine Science, 7, 610306. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.610306.
Baruník J., Vosvrda M. (2009) Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain stock market crashes? Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 33(10), 1824-1836. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2009.04.004.
Bilodeau G., Thie P., Keough G.E. (2010) An Introduction to Analysis, Boston, MA: Jones & Bartlett Publisher.
Carayannis E.G., Campbell D.F. (2009) ‘Mode 3’and’Quadruple Helix’: Toward a 21st century fractal innovation ecosystem. International Journal of Technology Management, 46 (3-4), 201-234. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJTM.2009.023374.
Carayannis E.G., Campbell D.F. (2010) Triple helix, quadruple helix and quintuple helix and how do knowledge, innovation and the environment relate to each other?: A proposed framework for a trans-disciplinary analysis of sustainable development and social ecology. International Journal of Social Ecology and Sustainable Development (IJSESD), 1(1), 41-69. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/jsesd.2010010105.
Cassingena Harper J. (2003) Vision Document, eFORESEE Malta ICT and Knowledge Futures Pilot. (eFORESEE Malta Report), La Valletta: Malta Council for Science and Technology.
Cherp A., Jewell J. (2014) The concept of energy security: Beyond the four as. Energy Policy, 75, 415-421. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.09.005.
Dehghannejad M. (2021) Value Capturing through Business Model Adaptations to Sustainability - case studies from the primary production stage of the Swedish agri-food supply chain, Uppsala: Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.
Deng Y. (2016) Deng entropy. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 91, 549-553. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2016.07.014.
Der Kiureghian A., Ditlevsen O. (2009) Aleatory or epistemic? does it matter? Structural Safety, 31(2), 105-112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2008.06.020.
Georghiou L. (2008) The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing.
Gunning D., Stefik M., Choi J., Miller T., Stumpf S., Yang G.-Z. (2019) XAI - Explainable artificial intelligence. Science Robotics, 4 (37), eaay7120. https://doi.org/10.1126/scirobotics.aay7120.
Hastings A. (2004) Transients: The key to long-term ecological understanding? Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 19(1), 39-45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2003.09.007.
Hidalgo C., Hausmann R. (2009) The building blocks of economic complexity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(26), 10570-10575. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0900943106.
Huang Y., Pinker S. (2010) Lexical semantics and irregular inflection. Language and Cognitive Processes, 25, 1411-1461. https://doi.org/10.1080%2F01690961003589476.
Johnson R., Wichern D. (2014) Applied Multivariate Statistical Analysis, London: Pearson Education Limited.
Laurett R., Paco A., Mainardes E. (2021) Measuring sustainable development, its antecedents, barriers and consequences in agriculture: An exploratory factor analysis. Environmental Development, 37, 170-183. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2020.100583.
Logan L., Bindseil U. (2019) Large central bank balance sheets and market functioning, Basel: Bank of International Settlements.
Lu Z., Booth K., Edwards M., Popper R., Boyd A., Jones B., Miles I., Popper M., Velasco G. (2013) The technology horizon. Preliminary review on technologies impacting the future health and social care workforce, London: Health Education England.
Marchau V., Walker W., Bloemen P., Popper S. (2019) Decision making under deep uncertainty: From theory to practice, Heidelberg, Dordrecht, London, New York: Springer.
Markets Committee (2019) Large central bank balance sheets and market functioning (Markets Committee Paper no 11, October), Baselle: Bank for International Settlements.
Martin R. (2012) Regional economic resilience, hysteresis and recessionary shocks. Journal of Economic Geography, 12(1), 1-32. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbr019.
Masini E., Vasquez J. (2000) Scenarios as seen from a human and social perspective. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65(1), 49-66. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00127-4.
Miles I. (2013) Appraisal of alternative methods and procedures for producing regional foresight. Paper presented at the European Commission’s DG Research funded STRATA - ETAN Expert Group ActionConference, February 2013.
Miles I., Saritas O., Sokolov A. (2016) Foresight for science, technology and innovation, Heidelberg, Dordrecht, London, New York: Springer.
Morgan T. (1935) The Scientific Basis of Evolution. (2nd ed.), New York: W.W. Norton, Inc.
Ntalampiran S., Misuraca G., Rossel P. (2023) Artificial Intelligence and Cybersecurity Research (ENISA Research and Innovation Brief), Brussels: European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA).
Osband K. (2023) Why the variance of beliefs matters, Napoli: Institute for Studies on the Mediterranean (ISMed).
Pearson K. (2022) On the General Theory of Skew Correlation and Non-linear Regression, London: Legare Street Press (first published in 1905 by Dulau and Company).
Pinker S. (2007) The stuff of thought: Language as a window into human nature, New York: Penguin.
Popper K. (1992) The Logic of Scientific Discovery, New York: Routledge.
Popper K. (1994) The myth of the framework: In defence of science and rationality, New York: Psychology Press.
Popper R. (2008) How are foresight methods selected? Foresight, 10(6), 62-89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/14636680810918586.
Popper R. (2023) The role of horizon scanning in anticipating and monitoring emerging technologies and disruptive innovations. In: Technology Foresight for Public Funding of Innovation: Methods and Best Practices (eds. L. Vesnic-Alujevic, J. Farinha, A. Polvora), Brussels: European Commission, pp. 48-58.
Popper R., Miles I., Ravetz J., Teichler T., Perini I., Cox D., Butler J., Kaivo-Oja J., Sajeva M., Saarinen L., Steinmueller K., Von Saldern S., Ollivere G., Walker A., Fatun M., Klusácek K., Valenta O., Sharan Y., Hauptman A., Lång J., Decanter D., Klusácek J., Vacatko J., Dorňák M. (2011) iKNOW Policy Alerts, Manchester: University of Manchester.
Popper R., Popper M., Velasco G. (2017) Towards a more responsible sustainable innovation assessment and management culture in Europe. Engineering Management in Production and Services, 9(4), 7-20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/emj-2017-0027.
Popper R., Popper M., Velasco G. (2020) Governance and Management of Sustainable Innovation: Learning from experience to Shape the Future, Heidelberg, Dordrecht, London, New York: Springer.
Popper R.W. (2000) Compact lie groups acting on pseudomanifolds. Illinois Journal of Mathematics, 44(1), 1-19.
Ravetz J., Popper R., Miles I. (2011) iKnow ERA Toolkit (Report of the Blue Sky iKnow Project for the European Commission Directorate-General for Research and Innovation Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities), Manchester: Manchester Institute of Innovation Research.
Shannon C., Weaver W. (1949) The mathematical theory of communication, Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press.
Spearman C. (1904) General Intelligence. Objectively Determined and Measured. The American Journal of Psychology, 15(2), 201-293. https://doi.org/10.2307/1412107.
Teramoto Y., Takahashi D., Holmes P., Ghazanfar A. (2017) Vocal development in a Waddington Landscape. Elife, 6, 760-782. https://doi.org/10.7554%2FeLife.20782.
Thom R. (1975) Stabilité structurelle et morphogenèse, Paris: Dunod.
Vásquez M., Ortegón E. (2006) Manual de prospectiva y decisión estratégica: Bases teóricas e instrumentos para América Latina y el Caribe, Bogota: CEPAL.
Velasco G. (2017) Understanding the generation of research and innovation policy advice with foresight processes (PhD thesis), Manchester: The University of Manchester.
Villarroel Y. (1995) On completely integrable systems. Publicaciones Mathematicae, 47(3-4), 237-248.
Waddington C.H. (1957) The strategy of the genes, New York: Routledge.
Wu W., Piyaratne M., Zhao H., Li C., Hu Z., Hu X. (2014) Butterfly catastrophe model for wheat aphid population dynamics: Construction, analysis and application. Ecological Modelling, 288, 55-61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.05.017.
Yang Z., Chen Y., Marti J. (2020) Modelling cascading failure of a cps for topological resilience enhancement. IET Smart Grid, 3(2), 207-215. https://doi.org/10.1049/iet-stg.2019.0169.
Zhu X., Geng Y., Wu D., Houssini K., Gao Z. (2023) Evaluating the security of China’s zirconium industry. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 199, 107-177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2023.107277.
Это произведение доступно по лицензии Creative Commons «Attribution» («Атрибуция») 4.0 Всемирная.