Scenarios of Development for Non-Ferrous Metal Markets Under the Spread of Alternative Fuel Vehicles

Abstract

Advances in technology, growing concern about climate change, and the setting of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets in many countries have contributed to a significant increase in the demand for alternative fuel vehicles globally over the last decade. Electric vehicles, which include all-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), are the most promising alternative to conventional hydrocarbon vehicles. It is very likely that in some regions of the world electric vehicles will dominate the market as early as the 2030s. However, compared to internal combustion engine vehicles, the production of electric vehicles requires a wider range of non-ferrous metals, which may become one of the bottlenecks for further electrification of transportation. This paper presents a scenario analysis of the development of the electric vehicle market, and then calculates the key metal requirements for each of the scenarios considered. The results of this analysis reveal that, between now and 2050, the accelerating spread of electric vehicles will have a significant impact on the cobalt market, a moderate impact on the lithium, nickel, and copper markets, and a minor impact on the manganese and aluminum markets. The results of the analysis demonstrate that the increasing use of electric vehicles in the coming decades opens up significant opportunities for countries specializing in the production of non-ferrous metals, including Russia, to increase their supply to global markets.