Abstract
Environmental issues were typically overlooked until the late 1980s, but they have secured great interest among economists over the last few decades. In this paper, we explored the impact of the multilevel financial development index (FDINX) along with foreign direct investment (FDI), gross domestic product (GDP), gross domestic product squared (GDP square), and total natural resources (TNRSTN) on the environmental sustainability of China for the period 1991-2022 by using a dynamic autoregressive distributed lag model. We took China as our sample country because it has committed to achieving its net zero emission targets by 2060. The findings reveal that there is a statistically significant relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions (CO2e) both in the short and long term. The EKC hypothesis in China is significant because the GDP squared negatively impacts CO2e in both the short and long run. The estimated parameter of energy efficiency (ENEFC) is negatively significant in the short term, whereas total natural resources significantly impact CO2e in the long run. FDINX has a positive and weakly significant impact on CO2e in the long run, as FDINX increases economic expansion by providing financial resources through cheap loans for dirty industries. The outcomes are significant for foreign direct investment (FDI), which has less impact on environmental sustainability than does FDI in the short run. Our research also supported the pollution haven hypothesis for China in the short run.
References
Наваз Ф., Каяни У., Фахлеви М., Лукман Азиз А., Юн Т. (2025) Двойная цена роста: как инвестиции влияют на выбросы CO₂ в Южной Корее. Форсайт, 19(3), 6–15. https://doi.org/10.17323/fstig.2025.27981
Ahmad M., Zhao Z.Y., Li H. (2019) Revealing stylized empirical interactions among construction sector, urbanization, energy consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions in China. Science of the Total Environment, 657, 1085–1098. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.112
Ahmad M., Jabeen G., Wu Y. (2021) Heterogeneity of pollution haven/halo hypothesis and environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis across development levels of Chinese provinces. Journal of Cleaner Production, 285, 124898. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124898
Akalpler E., Hove S. (2019) Carbon emissions, energy use, real GDP per capita and trade matrix in the Indian economy-an ARDL approach. Energy, 168, 1081–1093. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.12.012
Ali M.U., Gong Z., Ali-Ren Y.S., Apergis N., Ma C., Baltas K., Jiang Y., Liu J.L. (2021) FDI, economic growth, and carbon emissions of the Chinese steel industry: new evidence from a 3SLS model. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28, 52547–52564. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14445-w
Asumadu-Sarkodie S., Owusu P.A. (2017) Carbon dioxide emissions, GDP per capita, industrialization and population: An evidence from Rwanda. Environmental Engineering Research, 22(1), 116–124. https://doi.org/10.4491/eer.2016.097
Aysan A., Kayani F., Kayani U.N. (2020) The Chinese inward FDI and economic prospects amid COVID-19 crisis. Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences, 14(4), 1088–1105.
Azam M., Khan A.Q., Ozturk I. (2019) The effects of energy on investment, human health, environment and economic growth: empirical evidence from China. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26(11), 10816–10825. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-04497-4
Breusch T.S. (1978) Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models. Australian Economic Papers, 17(31), 334–355. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8454.1978.tb00635.x
Breusch T.S., Pagan A.R. (1979) A simple test for heteroscedasticity and random coefficient variation. Econometrica, 47, 1287–1294. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911963
Brown R.L., Durbin J., Evans J.M. (1975) Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 37(2), 149–163. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1975.tb01532
Chen S., Jin H., Lu Y. (2019) Impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions and energy consumption structure: А panel data analysis for Chinese prefecture-level cities. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 49, 107–119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2018.08.009
Chen W. (2005) The costs of mitigating carbon emissions in China: Findings from China MARKAL-MACRO modeling. Energy Policy, 33(7), 885–896. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2003.10.012
CMA (2016) China greenhouse gas bulletin: The state of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere based on Chinese and global observations before 2016 (Climate Change Centre Paper No. 5), Bejing: China Meteorological Administration (CMA).
Dickey D.A., Fuller W.A. (1981) Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517
Duan Y., Jiang X. (2021) Pollution haven or pollution halo? A Re-evaluation on the role of multinational enterprises in global CO2 emissions. Energy Economics, 97, 105181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105181
Engle R.F., Granger C.W.J. (1987) Cointegration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251–276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
Eskeland G.S., Harrison A.E. (2003) Moving to greener pastures? Multinationals and the pollution haven hypothesis. Journal of Development Economics, 70(1), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(02)00084-6
Godfrey L.G. (1978) Testing Against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models when the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables. Econometrica, 46(6), 1293–1301. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913829. JSTOR 1913829
Grossman G., Krueger A. (1991) Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement (NBER Working Paper No. 3914), Cambridbe, MA: NBER. https://doi.org/10.3386/w3914
Hanif I. (2018) Impact of fossil fuels energy consumption, energy policies, and urban sprawl on carbon emissions in East Asia and the Pacific: A panel investigation. Energy Strategy Reviews, 21, 16–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2018.04.006
Huang Y., Chen X., Zhu H., Huang C., Tian Z. (2019) The heterogeneous effects of FDI and foreign trade on CO2 emissions: Evidence from China. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 9612492. https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/9612492
Johansen S. (1991) Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models. Econometrica, 59(6), 1551. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938278
Joshua U., Alola A.A. (2020) Accounting for environmental sustainability from coal-led growth in South Africa: The role of employment and FDI. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(15), 17706–17719. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-08260-3
Kayani F.N. (2017) A Comparative study upon Chinese and Turkish Inward Foreign Direct Investment. Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, 5(1), 69–77. https://doi.org/10.15604/ejef.2017.05.01.005
Kayani F.N., Al-Ammary O.M., Sadiq M. (2021) Inward FDI and economic growth nexus: A case of emerging Brazil from Latin America. Scientific Papers of the University of Pardubice. Series D, Faculty of Economics & Administration, 29(3), 1344. https://doi.org/10.46585/sp29031344%0A
Kayani F.N., Ganic M. (2021) The impact of Governance upon Chinese Inward FDI: The Generalized Method of Moments Technique. Humanities and Social Sciences Letters, 9(2), 175–184. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.73.2021.92.175.184
Kemal Beşer M., Hızarcı Beşer B. (2017) The Relationship between Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions and GDP per Capita: A Revisit of the Evidence from Turkey. Alphanumeric Journal, 5(3), 353-368. https://doi.org/10.17093/alphanumeric.353957
Kim S. (2019) CO2 emissions, foreign direct investments, energy consumption, and GDP in developing countries: А more comprehensive study using panel vector error correction model. Korean Economic Review, 35(1), 5–24.
Li R., Jiang H., Sotnyk I., Kubatko O., Almashaqbeh Y.A.I. (2020) The CO2 emissions drivers of postcommunist economies in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Atmosphere, 11(9), 1019. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11091019
Liu X., Wahab S., Hussain M., Sun Y., Kirikkaleli D. (2021) China carbon neutrality target: Revisiting FDI-trade-innovation nexus with carbon emissions. Journal of Environmental Management, 294, 113043. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113043
Magazzino C., Cerulli G. (2019) The determinants of CO2 emissions in MENA countries: А responsiveness scores approach. International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 26(6), 522–534. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504509.2019.1606863
Moutinho V., Varum C., Madaleno M. (2017) How economic growth affects emissions? An investigation of the environmental Kuznets curve in Portuguese and Spanish economic activity sectors. Energy Policy, 106, 326–344. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.03.069
Opoku E.E.O., Adams S., Aluko O.A. (2021) The foreign direct investment-environment nexus: Does emission disaggregation matter?. Energy Reports, 7, 778–787. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2021.01.035
Pesaran M.H., Shin Y., Smith R.J. (2001) Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2678547
Selvanathan E.A., Jayasinghe M., Selvanathan S. (2021) Dynamic modeling of inter‐relationship between tourism, energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth in South Asia. International Journal of Tourism Research, 23(4), 597–610. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2429
Soutter A.R.B., Mottus R. (2020) “Global warming” versus “climate change”: A replication on the association between political self-identification, question wording, and environmental beliefs. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 69, 101413. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2020.101413
Udemba E.N., Magazzino C., Bekun F.V. (2020) Modeling the nexus between pollutant emission, energy consumption, foreign direct investment, and economic growth: New insights from China. Environmental Science & Pollution Research, 27(15), 17831–17842. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-08180-x
Van D.T.B., Bao H.H.G. (2018) The role of globalization on CO2 emission in Vietnam incorporating industrialization, urbanization, GDP per capita and energy use. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 8(6), 275–283. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.7065
Wang Z.X., Hao P., Yao P.Y. (2017) Nonlinear relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions in China: An empirical study based on panel smooth transition regression models. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 14(12), 1568. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14121568
Wang Y., Liao M., Malik A., Xu L. (2019) Carbon emission effects of the coordinated development of two-way foreign direct investment in China. Sustainability, 11(8), 2428. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11082428
Yilanci V., Pata U.K. (2020) Investigating the EKC hypothesis for China: The role of economic complexity on ecological footprint. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 32683–32694. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-09434-4
Zhang L., Pang J., Chen X., Lu Z. (2019) Carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from the agricultural sector of China’s main grain-producing areas. Science of the Total Environment, 665, 1017–1025. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.162
Zugravu N., Kheder S.B. (2008) The pollution haven hypothesis: A geographic economy model in a comparative study (FEEM Working Paper 73.2008), Milano: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

