ISSN 1995-459X print E-ISSN 2312-9972 online ISSN 2500-2597 online English
Editor-in-chief Leonid Gokhberg
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2013. vol. 7. No. 1
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Strategies
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6–13
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Ozcan Saritas — Research Professor, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University — Higher School of Economics, and Senior Research Fellow, Mancherster Institute of Innovation Research (MIoIR), University of Manchester, UK. E-mail: osaritas@hse.ru Address: National Research University — Higher School of Economics, 20, Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation. Relations between the human and hi-tech worlds, even until recently considered the subject of science fiction, are taking a more real shape and becoming the focus of expert discussions. Some specialists suggest that in the future machines can become the principal creator of new technologies and race far ahead of humanity. However, emerging technologies for human enhancement offer new possibilities for humans to remain competitive against machines and to acquire more advanced physical and mental capacities. These techniques are interdisciplinary, drawing primarily on advances in medicine, pharmacology, nutrition, mobile communications, neuroscience and cognitive sciences. This paper provides examples of such developments, analyzes their contribution to the expansion of human capabilities and, consequently, implications for the future working environment. It addresses ethical issues and risks associated with human enhancement technologies, in particular, the emergence of the new social divide — between the users of such technologies and people lacking access to them. Finally, it discusses some wild cards that may cause future surprises and shocks, i.e. machines that can control a human-excluded world, a virtual level of human life that dominates real life. The author notes that such conditions will require rethinking established views of personality, human responsibility and mutual obligations that will help the establishment of new behavioral patterns. |
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14–27
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Ilya Kaminskiy — Director, Sectoral forecasting centre, Siberian State Medical University. E-mail: medicff@yandex.ru Address: 2, Moskovskiy trakt, Tomsk, 634050, Russian Federation. Ludmila Ogorodova — Deputy Chair, State Duma Committee for Science and High Technologies, and Chair, Technology Platform «Medicine of the Future». E-mail: lm-ogorodova@mail.ru Address: 1, Okhotny Ryad str., Moscow, 103265, Russian Federation. Maxim Patrushev — Head, Laboratory for Genomic and Proteomic Studies, Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University. E-mail: maxpatrushev@gmail.com Аddress: 14, Alexander Nevsky str., Kaliningrad, 236041, Russian Federation. Alexander Chulok — Head, Division for S&T Forecasting, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University — Higher School of Economics. E-mail: achulok@hse.ru. Address: National Research University — Higher School of Economics, 20 Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation. Many countries consider healthcare a priority area of development. Its future milestones lie in two key dimensions: social — combating common and complex diseases, and economic — establishing S&T basis that will provide leadership, or at least a decent niche in the global markets. The paper provides the results of a study conducted by the HSE in cooperation with the member organizations of technology platform “Medicine of the Future”. It supposes and empirically tests the feasibility of matching challenges and responses aimed at selecting the priorities of S&T development. The study identified underlying trends and S&T areas that will shape the medium and long term prospects of medicine, as well as backlogs allowing gaining strong global market positions. The possible technology responses for the most significant healthcare challenges for Russia are identified, and a priority research agenda is proposed. The authors conclude that Russia lacks breakthrough S&T capacities in the majority of promising medical areas. Meanwhile, domestic advances in some fields still offer the chance for a breakthrough and gaining solid positions on global markets as well as for integration in the value chain. Time to catch up with these opportunities however is running out: most of them are estimated to be available only for the next 5-7 years, so urgent actions are required. These results have been widely discussed in the framework of a range of communication platforms, including that of expert groups preparing the draft state-run programme «Development of Science and Technology for the period up to 2020», and working committees of the technology platform «Medicine of the Future», which are presented at Russian and international conferences. |
Innovation and Economy
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28–43
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Mikhail Gershman — Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University — Higher School of Economics. E-mail: mgershman@hse.ru Address: National Research University — Higher School of Economics, 20, Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation. Enhancing innovation performance in the industrial sector of the Russian economy is a long overdue. Since 2010 the government has conducted a kind of «incumbent» policy approach, encouraging mainly the largest state-owned companies. The latter are obliged to elaborate and implement innovation development programmes (IDPs) in order to accelerate modernization of the Russian economy and increase demand for innovation.
This paper analyzes the results of the monitoring of STI activities undertaken by the state-owned companies in relation to implementation of innovative development programmes. It evaluates the interim results of government initiatives to foster innovation in the related business segment, notes the negative effects of excessive «compulsion» to innovate and provides recommendations for improving policy.
Monitoring shows that the actual priority for most companies is modernization of fixed assets through acquisition of modern machinery and equipment. Technology adoption, along with R&D investments, significantly surpasses other possible mechanisms encouraging innovative development (including support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), education and training in innovation, co-operation with other actors in the framework of technology platforms, venture funding). The innovation outputs of the surveyed group of companies are in fact comparable to the Russian average although monitoring does not allow the assessment of corporate patent strategies or the novelty of innovative products that are produced and exported.
The author argues that the fundamental policy effect through organizational changes and investments may manifest itself in the next decade. However, the quality of the corporate management, employee loyalty to structural change and organisational culture that supports innovation, would likely be more important in enhancing overall performance. Policy recommendations include: differentiation of government incentives according to the companies’ specificities, development of their external linkages with SMEs and universities, linking innovation strategies to corporate policies, and integration of IDPs into the roadmaps of technological development of Russian regions and markets. |
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44–57
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Marina Doroshenko — Head, Department for Analytical Research, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University — Higher School of Economics. E-mail: mdoroshenko@hse.ru Address: National Research University — Higher School of Economics, 20, Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation. Kirill Skripkin — Lecturer, Faculty of Economics, Economic Informatics Department, Moscow State University. E-mail: k.skripkin@gmail.com Address: 1-46, Leninskiye Gory, GSP-1, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation. Today governments in a range of countries, including Russia, consider the promotion of open source software as an important policy tool for the development of information technologies. Since 2010 in Russia, an initiative has been undertaken to establish a National Software Platform (a set of applications based on Open Source) which, it is presumed, will be compulsorily embedded into the system of public administration. The paper assesses the efficiency of government policy in the field of Open Source and provides recommendations for its improvement.
Analyzing the specifics of the software market, that is, comparing the strengths and weaknesses of the two main types of software — proprietary («closed»), and open — as well as «extreme» types in regard to the latter (direct stimulation or complete disengagement of the government from regulating the users’ choice), the authors conclude that any extreme policy approach is hardly relevant to the considered field. One should take into account the development not only of the software, but also the whole complex of complementary assets that are factors in the economic impact of innovation. The joint work of suppliers and customers in introducing new technologies (co-invention) creates a synergy that is the key to the effective use of ICT in the economy and development of the sector as a whole. Therefore, protectionism (fostering manufacturers at the cost of limiting consumer choice) is fundamentally inconsistent with the specifics of the ICT industry, and the compulsory transition to the new type of software will lead to a significant loss in terms of «switching costs» and benefits of network effects. At the same time, the indirect measures, including information sharing and support for users of open standards, expands customer choice and reduces the costs of switching from one to another software type. It is these mechanisms that are not just compatible with the specifics of the market, but also allow maximum benefits, both for producers and consumers. |
Master Class
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58–71
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John Casti — Co-founder, The X-Center (Austria). E-mail: casti@xevents.com Address: Trattnerhof 2, Top 211, 1010 Vienna, Austria. Many experts believe that our civilization is on the verge of shifting to a new long-term economic cycle — the sixth Kondratieff wave. Increasing diffusion and convergence of ICT, bio- and nanotechnologies, movements favoring «green» technologies and business models and holistic health, among others, are typically viewed as drivers of the new wave. The majority of futurists tend to look favorably upon these supposed trends, ways of resolving major challenges facing mankind. Others, including the author of this paper, argue that there are risks related to the development of new technologies, as well as factors of natural and social origin, which may impede the implementation of rosy scenarios. Implied is a reference to so-called «extreme events» (X-events) — hardly predictable, often unexpected short-term phenomena, whose intervention reverses the current trend in an opposite direction and may cause huge destructive effects. Their occurrence is pre-determined by a set of matured contextual prerequisites (primarily the complexity gap between governing system and addressed challenges, as well as changing social mood) and the random factor playing a role of a catalyst.
Using the complexity theory, the author evaluates the ability of a number of extreme factors to disrupt the abovementioned megatrends driving the sixth Kondratieff wave. Events and processes, such as global climate change, epidemics, famine, collapse of the Internet, and enslavement of human artificial intelligence, may produce scenarios that are totally different from those projected by most experts. However, as shown in the paper, the ability to predict and diligently consider the possible X-events followed by adoption of appropriate measures may allow the prevention or at least diminution of the devastating impact of such events.
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Images of the Future
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72–80
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José Luis Cordeiro — Energy Advisor and Lecturer, Singularity University in Silicon Valley (California, USA), and Chair, Venezuela Node of The Millennium Project. E-mail: jose.cordeiro@singularityu.org Address: NASA Research Park, bld. 20, S. Akron Rd., MS 20-1 Moffett Field CA 94035-0001, USA. The ability to extract and use energy played a decisive role in the development of human civilization. Energy consumption is growing exponentially, thus the only way to avoid future energy crisis is to explore renewable, more abundant sources.
It is known that some technology fields, particularly information and communication technologies, develop according to the “accelerating acceleration” principle. This paper analyzes the applicability of this pattern to energy production and consumption. It assumes that the development of advanced storage technologies and “smart” power distribution will lead to the creation of “global energy network” (Enernet). With the Enernet, energy and power will become abundant and basically free, just like information and bandwidth are today thanks to the Internet. This creates the prerequisites for coming “energy singularity” (“energularity”), which could happen in the next century – in result the humanity will gain full control over all energy available on the planet, and will reach a new level of development (type I according to the Kardashev scale).
“Energularity” is similar in some ways to the concepts of the “technological singularity” (intelligence explosion) and “methuselarity” (annual longevity extension for more than one year). Achieving “energularity” seems fundamental to improving the global quality of life and to exploring the universe. |
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John Casti — Co-founder, The X-Center (Austria). Address: Trattnerhof 2, Top 211, 1010 Vienna, Austria. E-mail: casti@xevents.com Alexander Chulok — Head, Division for S&T Forecasting, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University — Higher School of Economics. Address: National Research University — Higher School of Economics, 20 Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation. E-mail: achulok@hse.ru José Luis Cordeiro — Energy Advisor and Lecturer, Singularity University in Silicon Valley (California, USA), and Chair, Venezuela Node of The Millennium Project. Address: NASA Research Park, bld. 20, S. Akron Rd., MS 20-1 Moffett Field CA 94035-0001, USA. E-mail: jose.cordeiro@singularityu.org Marina Doroshenko — Head, Department for Analytical Research, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University — Higher School of Economics. Address: National Research University — Higher School of Economics, 20, Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation. E-mail: mdoroshenko@hse.ru Mikhail Gershman — Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University — Higher School of Economics. Address: National Research University — Higher School of Economics, 20, Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation. E-mail: mgershman@hse.ru Ilya Kaminskiy — Director, Sectoral forecasting centre, Siberian State Medical University. Address: 2, Moskovskiy trakt, Tomsk, 634050, Russian Federation. E-mail: medicff@yandex.ru Ludmila Ogorodova — Deputy Chair, State Duma Committee for Science and High Technologies, and Chair, Technology Platform «Medicine of the Future». Address: 1, Okhotny Ryad str., Moscow, 103265, Russian Federation. E-mail: lm-ogorodova@mail.ru Maxim Patrushev — Head, Laboratory for Genomic and Proteomic Studies, Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University. Аddress: 14, Alexander Nevsky str., Kaliningrad, 236041, Russian Federation. E-mail: maxpatrushev@gmail.com Ozcan Saritas — Research Professor, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University — Higher School of Economics, and Senior Research Fellow, Mancherster Institute of Innovation Research (MIoIR), University of Manchester, UK. Address: National Research University — Higher School of Economics, 20, Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation. E-mail: osaritas@hse.ru Kirill Skripkin — Lecturer, Faculty of Economics, Economic Informatics Department, Moscow State University. Address: 1-46, Leninskiye Gory, GSP-1, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation. E-mail: k.skripkin@gmail.com |
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