Journal of the National Research University Higher School of Economics

On 24 June, the editors of the Foresight and STI Governance journal jointly with prominent experts from the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, and Russia discussed new foresight methods in the context of complex systems. The lively debates opened up a new horizon of anticipating opportunities.

George Wright, Professor at the University of Strathclyde (UK) and editor-in-chief of the Futures and Foresight Science journal, spoke about the aspects of scenario thinking particularly important for building global post-COVID scenarios. The time horizon, and geographic focus of the study should be taken into account, along with stakeholders’ roles. Larger, more influential organisations will be able to take care of themselves moving along any development path, and implement the desired scenarios. All players’ behaviour is modelled in the scope of role-playing games.

Diana Mangalagiu, Professor at the Oxford University (UK), spoke about combining scenario analysis and complex systems studies techniques to explore sustainable development issues. Methods applied in complex systems studies are also successfully used in foresight projects, but require a more precisely defined scope of the study and a clear connection between modelling and horizon scanning.

Hans Wiesmeth, Professor at the Technical University of Dresden (Germany), President of the Saxon Academy of Sciences, and expert at the Fraunhofer Centre for International Management and Knowledge Economy IMW, presented a new circular economy model. Circular economy is primarily driven by new digital technologies. The transition to circular economy should not lead to companies’ making losses, but on the contrary should increase their profits. Dealing with the current issues requires paying more attention to sustainable (green) product design, and overcoming the Jevons paradox (more efficient use of a resource can lead to a decrease in its price and, as a consequence, its increased consumption).

Geraldine Wessing, Senior Analyst and Scenario Practitioner at Shell, spoke about the company’s many years’ experience in making long-term forecasts based on social priorities. Scenario analysis plays a leading role in Shell’s futures research, due to the growing uncertainty and complexity of the current global trends and processes. The team led by Wessing is based at the strategic planning department, but in fact acts as an independent think tank. Scenarios help the company revise its current strategies, and develop new ones. Shell scenarios are presented in a narrative format, describing various futures. This makes them easier to understand for the company decision-makers and the external audience (the study results are publicly available). An important function of the scenario analysis and forecasting team is critically reviewing the generally accepted beliefs and prevailing principles. In addition to building scenarios, the Shell research team identifies critical uncertainties, demonstrating the relevance of the research to various company departments, energy industries, and stakeholders. A Shell study conducted with the help of quantitative and qualitative analytical techniques proposed three scenarios: Waves, Islands, and Sky 1.5. The latter describes necessary responses to the climate change- and environmental pollution-related challenges. In addition to global scenarios, the Shell research team also develops national and regional scenarios and roadmaps jointly with local partners such as NGOs, companies, and authorities.

Anthony van Raan, professor at the Leiden University (Netherlands), presented bibliometric maps of complex systems studies, which allowed visualising research trends, emerging topics, and scientists’ collaborations. The analysis revealed a significant change in research topics and leading countries over the past five years. Two major areas dominated in the research agenda previously: climate change and genetic analysis, with the largest number of studies carried out by the US scientists. In 2020-2021 climate change-related topics expanded, a new cluster of emerging technologies studies appeared (including machine learning, artificial intelligence, etc.), and China has moved on to the top of the list in terms of the number of publications. Five years ago the results of foresight and complex systems studies were mainly published in journals specialising in futures, social, and humanities research. Currently the main body of research results is represented by natural science journals, while the focus has shifted to specific decarbonisation technologies.

Riccardo Vecchiato, professor at the Kingston University London (UK), analysed the relationship between corporate organizations’ foresight and cognitive practices. The study examined employees’ mental rigidity, inflexible perception frameworks, and strategic beliefs which affect the company’s innovation activity and strategic decision-making. In rapidly changing industries, managers’ failure to change their static perceptions and principles based on previous experience hinders the company-level search for new solutions. A major outcome of foresight projects is practical application of research results, which implies the ability to change the strategic attitudes (mental models) that decision-makers derive from their previous work experience.

Klaus Mainzer, professor at the Technical University of Munich (Germany) and President of the European Academy of Arts and Sciences (Austria) spoke about the role of machine learning and artificial intelligence technologies in complex systems studies. The natural sciences initially applied logical, knowledge-based algorithms, which subsequently gave way to statistical big data-based machine learning techniques, and ultimately to various combinations of these methods. Machine data analysis allowed quick deciphering the structure of SARS-CoV-2 virus proteins, but now we know this did not help stop the epidemic. A major foresight study is needed to simulate the virus mutation and proliferation, and design an early warning system to identify similar threats in the future. Artificial intelligence can be applied to supplement and refine expert opinions in the course of foresight studies. Machine learning and artificial intelligence technologies are becoming a new factor in countries’ dominance on the global arena, and in different regions of the world they are applied in different ways. E.g. in the US research traditionally has been closely related to business, and is often funded by companies. In Europe research is supported by public funds. In China there is a state monopoly on research funding and the use of the results obtained, while ethical restrictions are extremely weak. The global rivalry of these three leaders will determine the geopolitical dominance in the future.

Helena Knyazeva, professor at the HSE School of Philosophy and Cultural Studies, suggested strengthening the foresight methodology with tools applied to studying complex systems. Nonlinear forecasting methods help determine long-term horizons, eliminate uncertainty, reduce instability, reveal weak signals, and design risk management and early warning systems.

Video recording of the seminar

Participants' presentations

The workshop was organized in the framework of a research grant funded by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (grant ID: 075-15-2020-928).