Journal of the National Research University Higher School of Economics

“Complexity economics” covers a wide range of issues from managing complex socio-economic systems and innovative projects to cognitive aspects which determine economic agents’ behaviour. The topic of meta-competences – those that enable one to holistically cover a multidimensional context, and develop realistic strategies to match various future scenarios – is of particular relevance here.
These and similar aspects were addressed by the participants of the round table discussion “Blending Qualitative and Quantitative Foresight Methods in Complexity Economics”. The event was hosted by the editorial board of Foresight and STI Governance journal as part of the international symposium “Foresight and Science, Technology, and Innovation Policy” in the scope of  the XXIV Yasin (April) International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development.

Sofi Dinesh (Bharathidasan Institute of Management, India) spoke about the impact of cognitive factors on decision-making in a complex, multi-layered environment. Cognitive complexity is one of the most relevant recently discussed abilities. It determines the willingness to make informed individual decisions taking into account cause-and-effect relationships, and a holistic perception of a particular situation or problem as a complex system. The speaker described the characteristics of the cognitive complexity concept, and the benefits this competence provides in a rapidly changing world.

The reports by two other participants, Michinaga Kohno (Michi Creative City Designers, Japan) and Irina Ilyina (Higher School of Economics), were focused on managing cities as complex socio-economic systems.

Irina Ilyina noted the growing trend to abandon zoning urban environments and managing cities’ key life support systems (such as energy and water supply, education, etc.) separately from each other. The approach based on a holistic perception of the city as a multi-level “system of systems” is gaining popularity. Algorithmic models which allow to rethink the image of the city and blend all spheres of life together are being developed to implement it.

Michinaga Kohno demonstrated the principles of applying such a model in practice. Data collected in real time via the internet of things from infrastructure facilities, residents, and visitors to the city is fed into a multi-level dynamic city model. The generated picture is compared to the overall goal and the strategy embedded in the model. Based on the comparison results the system generates relevant feedback: assigns infrastructure managing responsibilities and sends personal messages to people’s mobile devices to adjust their behaviour.

Wang Xiaoyang of the Kebangsaan University (Malaysia) addressed the factors affecting the development of growth strategies by entrepreneurs in increasingly complex, uncertain, and turbulent environments, and the new management concepts which contribute to this choice. Among the key aspects of such strategies the speaker noted regular scanning of emerging market trends and technologies, employing flexible strategies and business models, a comprehensive system for training and recruiting highly qualified, creative personnel, and promoting innovation by all employees.

Suddhashit Mitra (Mushiribad Management Development Institute, India) spoke about non-linear methods for assessing the dissemination of innovations. In the context of complexity economics the idea of economic actors as rational agents is called into question. The increasingly complex context, and the growing likelihood of abrupt and sudden market changes make it difficult to apply standard quantitative forecasting techniques. Using specific examples, the speaker demonstrated how quantitative and qualitative methods can complement each other to enhance predictive models’ potential.

One of the key, but still insufficiently researched aspects of studying complex socio-economic systems is the latter’s “neglect”. We are talking about situations arising when key participants in the system refuse to perceive it holistically, and take responsibility for its long-term sustainability. Dmitry Katalevsky (Moscow State University) demonstrated the inevitability of such systems’ collapse over time, and the need for their radical reconfiguration using the Boeing case as an example. The mismatch between key elements of the system and certification agencies’ requirements, the priority of increasing profit margins over complying with flight safety regulations led to a series of resonant disasters. It is critically important to monitor “hidden” system processes to prevent deviation from the optimal course and avoid destructive scenarios, summed up the speaker.

The merger of the physical and digital worlds which creates the metaverse is gaining momentum, and promises radical changes in business models applied in all areas. Shinu Vig (Symbiosis International University, India) focused on discussing the skills needed to successfully operate in the metaverse. In addition to technical skills (development of virtual and augmented reality technologies, blockchain design, data analytics), there is also a demand for people with universal competencies. The speaker identified several groups of such competencies (communication skills, adaptability, problem solving, emerging trend scanning, etc.). Some universities already offer relevant courses, e.g. building realistic scenarios to reorient one’s thinking and change perception of the current situation, the broader context, and future prospects.

A topic inextricably linked to the complexity economics concept is the sustainable development paradigm. Kiet Vong (FPT University, Vietnam) presented the results of a study assessing how future entrepreneurs and economists perceive the development of corporate strategies which take this factor into account. Based on the analysis of the survey results a portfolio of 13 basic strategic initiatives was compiled, which companies should apply to achieve sustainable development goals. The presented results show the importance of future entrepreneurs’ developing knowledge, holistic thinking, practical skills for, and responsible attitude to sustainable development.