Uncertainties, Knowledge, and Futures in Foresight Studies — A Case of the Industry 4.0

Abstract

The main purpose of this publication is an attempt to treat the phenomenon of uncertainty as one of the main research subjects in futures studies and not as the background for futures research – by answering the following research question: “What is the methodical relationship between the scope of the uncertainty phenomenon and the levels of knowledge and types of futures in the foresight approach?” This study uses the results of the analysis and criticism of the literature as the main research method. On this basis, deductive reasoning was carried out. Types of futures and the scope of uncertainty allowed to define the author's scale of knowledge levels are proposed. This paper has attempted to draw together three methodological fields: uncertainty, foresight, and knowledge. The author analyzed complex relations among the above areas on the basis of their characteristics, which are extensions of existing concepts available in the literature. In the author's opinion, conclusions from the results presented in this article can be a valuable contribution to the development of the area of of futures management. In the management of complex systems (such as Industry 4.0), from the foresight methodological point of view, it seems relevant to determine which specific uncertainties can be managed by which classes of foresight methods, and which foresight methods are determined by what level of knowledge. The results of the research presented in this publication may be used for creating a research methodology of technological foresight projects and as a complementary element of research devoted to the issues of the development of modern technologies, which include Industry 4.0.