Abstract
Mainstream policy and scientific debates on the future of labor markets are dominated by the “next job title” approach. We propose changing this framework by examining the plausibility of a future vision that eliminates the needs for jobs as such. The article describes major drivers pushing toward a post-work future that are already underway, such as the rise of automation and artificial intelligence, shifts in individual values, and blurring the line between daily life activities. There are also significant obstacles to a post-work future, related to the current central role of work in one’s social life. Even though these obstacles are being addressed it may take decades for this transition to occur. Despite this, in order to overcome related challenges it makes sense to already begin preparing for the transition. In particular, we advocate for a serious policy discussion on the post-work future, the development of programs to manage the transition and promotion the value of purpose and personal futures planning.
References
Alperovitz G. (2013) The possibility of a pluralist commonwealth and a community sustaining political-economic system // The Pluralist Commonwealth. Режим доступа: http://www.pluralistcommonwealth.org/possibility-of-pc.html, дата обращения 25.01.2019.
Anzilotti E. (2019) The one clear result of Finland's basic income trial: It made people happier // Fast Company. 20.02.2019. Режим доступа: https://www.fastcompany.com/90308392/the-one-clear-result-of-finlands-basic-income-trial-it-made-people-happier, дата обращения 26.02.2019.
Armstrong P. (2017) Which one of these will be your job title in 2037? // Fortune Blog. 21.09.2017. Режим доступа: https://www.forbes.com/sites/paularmstrongtech/2017/09/21/which-one-of-these-will-be-your-job-title-in-2037/#64eade9549f8, дата обращения 25.01.2019.
Beck D., Cowan C. (2005) Spiral dynamics: Mastering values, leadership and change. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley-Blackwell.
Bergstein B. (2018) Basic income could work - if you do it Canada-style // MIT Technology Review. 20.06.2018. Режим доступа: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/611418/basic-income-could-work-if-you-do-it-canada-style/, дата обращения 25.01.2019.
Biggs J. (2015) All day long: A portrait of Britain at work. London: Serpent's Tail.
Bollier D. (2014) Think like a commoner: A short introduction to the life of the commons. Gabriola Island, BC, Canada: New Society Publishers.
Bostrom N. (2014) Superintelligence: Paths, dangers, strategies. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
Brown E. (2018) Universal Basic Income is Easier than It Looks // Truthdig. 27.12.2018. Режим доступа: https://www.truthdig.com/articles/universal-basic-income-is-easier-than-it-looks/, дата обращения 25.01.2019.
Browne T. (2018) 70% of people globally work remotely at least once a week, study says // CNBC Make It. 30.05.2018. Режим доступа: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/30/70-percent-of-people-globally-work-remotely-at-least-once-a-week-iwg-study.html, дата обращения 25.01.2019.
Brynjolfsson E., McAfee A. (2014) The second machine age: Work, progress, and prosperity in a time of brilliant technologies. New York: W.W. Norton & Company.
CASSE (n.d.) What is a Steady State Economy? Center for the Advancement of the Steady State Economy (CASSE) Brief. Режим доступа: http://www.steadystate.org/wp-content/uploads/CASSE_Brief_SSE.pdf, дата обращения 25.01.2019.
Coelho A. (2019) India: Congress party gets serious about basic income and reaches out to Thomas Piketty for policy design support // BIEN (Basic Income Earth Network). 14.02.2019. Режим доступа: https://basicincome.org/news/2019/02/india-congress-party-gets-serious-about-basic-income-and-reaches-out-to-thomas-piketty-for-policy-design-support/, дата обращения 26.02.2019.
Crook C. (2018) Full Employment // Bloomberg. 06.07.2018. Режим доступа: https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/full-employment, дата обращения 25.01.2019.
De Angelis M. (2017) Omnia sunt communia: On the commons and the transformation to postcapitalism. London: Zed Books.
De Wispelaere J., Halmetoja A., Ville-Veikko P. (2018) The Finnish basic income experiment - correcting the narrative // Social Europe. 08.11.2018. Режим доступа: https://www.socialeurope.eu/the-finnish-basic-income-experiment-correcting-the-narrative, дата обращения 25.01.2019.
Diamandis P. (2012) Abundance: The future is better than you think. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Diamond M. (2019) This 2020 candidate puts his money on universal income // Real Clear Politics. 20.02.2019. Режим доступа: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/02/20/this_2020_candidate_puts_his_money_on_universal_income_139516.html, дата обращения 20.02.2019.
EMF (2013) Towards the circular economy: Economic and business rationale for an accelerated transition. Vol. 1. Cowes, UK: Ellen MacArthur Foundation. Режим доступа: https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/assets/downloads/publications/Ellen-MacArthur-Foundation-Towards-the-Circular-Economy-vol.1.pdf, дата обращения 25.01.2019.
Eisenstein C. (2011) Sacred economics: Money, gift, and society in the age of transition. Berkeley, CA: North Atlantic Books.
Fioramonti L. (2016) Well-being economy: A scenario for a post-growth horizontal governance system // The Next System Project website, 03.11.2016. Режим доступа: https://thenextsystem.org/well-economy-scenario-post-growth-horizontal-governance-system, дата обращения 25.01.2019.
Frase P. (2016) Four futures: Life after capitalism. New York: Verso Books.
Frey C., Osborne M. (2013) The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation? Working Paper, Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Режим доступа: https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/future-of-employment.pdf, дата обращения 19.02.2019.
Frey T. (2011) 55 Jobs of the Future, Business Trends // Futurist Speaker. 11.11.2011. Режим доступа: https://futuristspeaker.com/business-trends/55-jobs-of-the-future/, дата обращения 25.01.2019.
Friedman G. (2014) Workers without employers: Shadow corporations and the rise of the gig economy // Review of Keynesian Economics. Vol. 2. № 2. P. 171-188.
Galeon D. (2019) Separating Science Fact from Science Hype: How Far off Is the Singularity? Futurism, 30.01.2018. Режим доступа: https://futurism.com/separating-science-fact-science-hype-how-far-off-singularity, дата обращения 19.02.2019.
Gaskell A. (2019) Humans remain central to the future of work // RealKM. 17.02.2019. Режим доступа: https://realkm.com/2019/02/17/humans-remain-central-to-the-future-of-work/, дата обращения 26.02.2019.
Gavett G. (2015) Workers are bad at filling out timesheets, and it costs billions a day // Harvard Business Review. 12.01.2015. Режим доступа: https://hbr.org/2015/01/workers-are-bad-at-filling-out-timesheets-and-it-costs-billions-a-day, дата обращения 20.02.2019.
Gibbs S. (2017) Uber plans to buy 24,000 autonomous Volvo SUVs in race for driverless future // The Guardian. 20.11.2017. Режим доступа: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/nov/20/uber-volvo-suv-self-driving-future-business-ride-hailing-lyft-waymo, дата обращения 20.02.2019.
Greene T. (2017) Google's AI guru predicts humans and machines will merge within 20 years // The Next Web. 10.11.2017. Режим доступа: https://thenextweb.com/artificial-intelligence/2017/11/10/googles-ai-guru-predicts-humans-and-machines-will-merge-within-20-years/, дата обращения 19.02.2019.
Groshen E., Helper S., MacDuffie J.P., Carson C. (2018) Preparing U.S. workers and employers for an autonomous vehicle future (Report prepared for SAFE - Securing America's Energy Future). Washington, D.C.: SAFE. Режим доступа: https://avworkforce.secureenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Groshen-et-al-Report-June-2018-1.pdf, дата обращения 25.01.2019.
Haque U. (2011) Betterness: Economics for Humans. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business Review Press.
Hines A. (1993) Transferable skills land future jobs // HR Magazine. Vol. 38. № 4. P. 55-56.
Hines A. (1996) Jobs and infotech: Work in the information society // Exploring your future: Living, learning, and working in the information age / Ed. E. Cornish. Bethesda, MD: World Future Society. P. 7-11.
Hines A. (2011) Consumer Shift: How Changing Values are Reshaping the Consumer Landscape. Tucson, AZ: No Limit Publishing.
Hines A. (2013) After Capitalism // Hinesight. 15.10.2013. Режим доступа: https://www.andyhinesight.com/category/after-capitalism/, дата обращения 25.01.2019.
Hines A. (2015a) The end of work as we know it // Career Planning and Adult Development Journal. Summer issue. P. 10-19.
Hines A. (2015b) Future-friendly design: Designing for and with future consumers // Design thinking: New product development essentials from the PDMA / Eds. M. Luchs, K.S. Swann, A. Griffin. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley. P. 333-348.
Hines A. (2017) Emerging student needs disrupting higher education // On the Horizon. Vol. 25. № 3. P. 197-208.
Hines A., Bengston D., Dockry M., Cowart A. (2018) Setting up a horizon scanning system: A U.S. federal agency example // World Futures Review. Vol. 10. № 2. P. 136-151.
Hines A., Bishop P. (2013) Framework foresight: Exploring futures the Houston way // Futures. Vol. 51. P. 31-49.
Holden G. (2013) Innovate 2038: Envisioning the future of R&D with global crowd-sourcing // Flashpoint: The Official Blog of Innovation Research Interchange. 27.09.2013. Режим доступа: https://iriwebblog.org/2013/09/27/innovate2038-envisioning-the-future-of-rd-with-global-crowd-sourcing/, дата обращения 25.01.2019.
Houston Foresight Program (2014) The future of student needs: 2025 and beyond. Indianapolis, IN: Lumina Foundation. Режим доступа: https://www.houstonforesight.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/FutureStudentNeeds2025LR.pdf, дата обращения 25.01.2019.
Houston Foresight Program (2017) The future of work 2050 for NASA LARC. Houston, TX: University of Houston. Режим доступа: https://www.houstonforesight.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NASA-LaRC-Future-of-Work-White-Paper.pdf, дата обращения 25.01.2019.
ILO (2019) Work for a Brighter Future. Report by the Global Commission on the Future of Work. Geneva: International Labor Organization.
Inglehart R. (2018) Cultural Evolution. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Jackson T. (2009) Prosperity without growth? Economics for a finite planet. London: Earthscan.
Kallis G., Demaria F., D'Alisa G. (2015) Introduction: Degrowth // Degrowth: A vocabulary for a new era / Eds. G. D'Alisa, F. Demaria, G. Kallis (1st ed.). New York: Routledge.
Kenton W. (2018) Business day // Investopedia. 21.02.2018. Режим доступа: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/business-day.asp, дата обращения 25.01.2019.
Kurzweil R. (2005) The singularity is near: When humans transcend biology. New York: Penguin.
Lebowitz S. (2015) Here's how the 40-hour workweek became the standard in America // Business Insider. 24.10.2015. Режим доступа: https://www.businessinsider.com/history-of-the-40-hour-workweek-2015-10, дата обращения 25.01.2019.
Leopold T., Stefanova V., Zahidi R. (2018) The Future of Jobs Report 2018. Geneva: World Economic Forum.
Loh P., Jimenez S. (2017) Solidarity Rising in Massachusetts: How Solidarity Economy Movement Is Emerging in Lower-Income Communities of Color. Boston, MA: TSNE. Режим доступа: http://tsne.org/downloads/SEI_SolidarityRising_Final.pdf, дата обращения 25.01.2019.
Mason P. (2015) Postcapitalism: A guide to our future. New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux.
Minder R. (2016) Guaranteed income for all? Switzerland's voters say no thanks // New York Times. 05.06.2016. Режим доступа: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/06/world/europe/switzerland-swiss-vote-basic-income.html, дата обращения 20.02.2019.
More M. (2013) The philosophy of transhumanism // Transhumanist Reader: Classical and Contemporary Essays on the Science, Technology, and Philosophy of the Human Future / Eds. M. More, N. Vita-More. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley-Blackwell. P. 1-17.
Painter A. (2017) Universal basic services or universal basic income? // RSA (Royal Society for the encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce). 17.10.2017. Режим доступа: https://www.thersa.org/discover/publications-and-articles/rsa-blogs/2017/10/universal-basic-services-or-universal-basic-income, дата обращения 26.02.2019.
Parkins K. (2017) Universal fividend. Medium. 11.02.2017. Режим доступа: https://medium.com/dark-mountain/universal-dividend-a988c31c372b, дата обращения 26.02.2019.
Piketty T. (2014) Capital in the twenty-first century. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press.
Prince K., Saveri A., Swanson J. (2017) The future of learning: Redefining readiness from the inside out. Cincinnati: Knowledge Works.
Ray P.H., Anderson S.R. (2000) The Cultural Creatives: How 50 Million People Are Changing the World. New York: Harmony Books.
Ready B. (2018) How small companies can compete on the world stage. Paper presented at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 23-26 January 2018, Davos-Klosters, Switzerland. Режим доступа: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/01/how-small-companies-can-compete-on-the-world-stage/, дата обращения 26.02.2019.
Reese B. (2019) AI will create millions more jobs than it will destroy. Here's how // Singularity Hub. 01.01.2019. Режим доступа: https://singularityhub.com/2019/01/01/ai-will-create-millions-more-jobs-than-it-will-destroy, дата обращения 26.02.2019.
Rifkin J. (2014) The zero marginal cost society: The internet of things, the collaborative commons, and the eclipse of capitalism. New York: St. Martin's Press.
Scharmer O. (2013) Leading from the emerging future: From ego-system to eco-system economies. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler.
Schweickart D. (2011) After capitalism (2nd ed.). Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.
Sherman E. (2018) AI is the new face of systemic (and automated) inequality // Forbes. 11.10.2018. Режим доступа: https://www.forbes.com/sites/eriksherman/2018/10/11/ai-is-the-new-face-of-systemic-and-automated-inequality/#2ff86e191838, дата обращения 19.02.2019.
Slaughter A., Bahat R., Sharp K. (2016) Shift: The commission on work, workers, and technology. Washington, D.C.: New America, Bloomberg.
Slaughter R. (2015) Preface // Thinking about the future / Eds. A. Hines, P. Bishop (2nd ed.). Houston, TX: Hinesight.
Slayter M.E. (2019) 11 really cool jobs that don't exist today, but will soon // Monster Blog. Режим доступа: https://www.monster.com/career-advice/article/cool-future-jobs, дата обращения 25.01.2019.
Snow J. (2018) Algorithms are making American inequality worse // MIT Technology Review. 26.01.2018. Режим доступа: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610026/algorithms-are-making-american-inequality-worse/, дата обращения 19.02.2019.
Srnicek N., Williams A. (2016) Inventing the future: Postcapitalism and a world without work. Brooklyn, NY: Verso Books.
Standing G. (2014) A precariat charter: From denizens to citizens. New York: Bloomsbury Publishing.
Standing G. (2018) Why the world should adopt a basic income // The Economist. 04.07.2018. Режим доступа: https://www.economist.com/open-future/2018/07/04/why-the-world-should-adopt-a-basic-income?fsrc=gp_en, дата обращения 25.01.2019.
Talwar R., Hancock T. (2010) The shape of jobs to come. London: Fast Future.
Thorpe E.K. (2018) Gartner: By 2020, AI will create more jobs than it eliminates // ITPRPO. 05.02.2018. Режим доступа: https://www.itpro.co.uk/automation/30463/gartner-by-2020-ai-will-create-more-jobs-than-it-eliminates, дата обращения 19.02.2019.
Tibbs H. (2011) Changing cultural values and the transition to sustainability // Journal of Futures Studies. Vol. 15. № 3. P. 13-32.
Toffler A. (1980) The third wave. New York: Morrow.
Vita-More N. (2018) Transhumanism: What is it? New Providence, NJ: Bowker.
WCED (1987) Our Common Future. World Commission on Environment and Development Report. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Wheelwright V. (2010) It's your future... make it a good one! Harlingen, TX: Personal Futures Network.
World Bank (2019) World development report 2019: The changing nature of work. Washington, D.C.: World Bank.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.