The Landscape of Foresight Theory and Practice: Between Strategic and Transformational Orientation

Abstract

Foresight researchers, like other professional communities, are evolving to more sophisticated theories and practices that address complex problems at new levels, requiring a holistic view of complex social, economic, technological and environmental systems. There is an emerging need to understand the nature of complex systems in order to develop appropriate thinking beyond established notions of the nature of capabilities. The heterogeneous ability to absorb new knowledge has led to the emergence in Foresight research circles of a philosophical division between a relatively narrow (in the logic of corporate strategies) and a more holistic, transformative view of the future. The article assesses the extent of this division and the dynamics of its change through a sample analysis of the practices of the world's leading Foresight centers. An overview of their philosophies, concepts and practices is presented, and the degree of readiness for a systemic approach through the prism of the five dimensions of Foresight is assessed. 

The study reveals a not so obvious trend - many centers understand the value and effectiveness of systems theory for solving contemporary problems in an increasingly complex context and are introducing “systemic” into their philosophy. However, there are difficulties in synthesizing the rational and irrational aspects in strategic thinking that are embedded in historical and cognitive dimensions. Overcoming this cognitive dichotomy allows Foresight practitioners to “see the future far, deep and inclusive in its wholeness”, and gain a more accurate picture of what is coming and how to prepare for it proactively.