Journal of the National Research University Higher School of Economics

The international research workshop, hosted by the (HSE) Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge in November 2013 at the Higher School of Economics addressed the growing need to integrate quantitative methods in Foresight projects. The main topic was the creation of a sustainable and reliable information and analytical database for use by stakeholders.In Russia, database development has been encouraged by the establishment of a national system of technological forecasting, which emerges from the increased demand for quality in forecasting research.

Presentations were made by world renowned experts — representatives of the EU Joint Research Centre — Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS); Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands; Finland Futures Research Center (FFRC), the University of Turku, Finland; HSE and other organizations. They presented findings about best practices in quantitive research and the newest ICT-based tools in Foresight studies worldwide. These will be used in preparing a scientific and methodological base for the next round of Russia’s Long-Term S&T Foresight.

Workshop participants discussed the prospects and challenges of integrating qualitative and quantitative methods in Foresight analysis. International experts described the potential for applying modeling techniques and data visualization for promising technologies and products, presented state-of-the-art simulation tools for developing quantitative scenarios for S&T, and shared experiences in the use of online games in future studies. The development of these and similar techniques, in the view of the participants, provides a greater space forimproving the Foresight methodology and the cooperation of specialists in qualitative and quantitative methods. It isassumed that in the medium term, these tools will be a partof the “gold standard” for any definitive Foresight study.

Most experts agreed that the integration of qualitative and quantitative methods enriches the Foresightmethodology and increases synergies from mutual learningof specialists in collaborative projects.