Keywords
scenarios
foresight
futures studies
prospective
agrifood networks
How to Cite
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to explore plausible scenarios and identify the desired scenario for the agrifood beef network in Santo Domingo, Ecuador until 2035. A methodological approach based on the processes of participation and collective reflection is proposed, which integrates methods from the French School of Prospective and The Futures Triangle V. 2.0. Four plausible scenarios were developed for the object of study: Innovate Against the Tide, National Pioneers, Obsolescent Gait, and Missed Opportunity. Of these, National Pioneers was deemed the desired scenario, because it integrates high innovation in the beef agrifood network with favorable environmental conditions. This study contributes to anticipating the evolution of Santo Domingo’s innovation in the agrifood network, which can promote a favorable trajectory for the province’s sustainable development.
References
Aceituno P. (2020) Prospectiva agrícola y alimentaria: la experiencia de Argentina, Chile y Bolivia, Santiago de Chile: Ediciones Universidad Tecnológica Metropolitana.
Arrieta E., Cabrol D., Cuchietti A., González A. (2020) Biomass consumption and environmental footprints of beef cattle production in Argentina. Agricultural Systems, 185, 131-144. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2020.102944
Barragán-Ochoa F. (2020) Redes de abastecimiento urbano de leche en Ecuador: la importancia de una visión territorial. In: Lechería, Territorios y Mercados (ed. C. Craviotti), Buenos Aires: Editorial El Lugar, pp. 195-220.
Barroso J., Gutiérrez J., Llorente M., Valencia R. (2019) Difficulties in the Incorporation of Augmented Reality. Journal of New Approaches in Educational Research University Education: Visions from the Experts, 8(2), 126-141. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7821/naer.2019.7.409
Berger G. (1957) Sciences humaines et prévision. In: De la prospective: Textes fondamentaux de la prospective française 1955-1967, Paris: L'Harmattan, pp. 55-64.
Brugarolas M., Martínez L., Rabadán A., Bernabéu R. (2020) Innovation Strategies of the Spanish Agri-Food Sector in Response to the Black Swan COVID-19 Pandemic. Foods, 9(12), 66-86. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/foods9121821
Cabero J., Romero R., Palacios A. (2020) Evaluation of Teacher Digital Competence Frameworks Through Expert Judgement: The Use of the Expert Competence Coefficient. Journal of New Approaches in Educational Research, 9(2), 275-293. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7821/naer.2019.7.409
Chung A. (2009) Strategic foresight, beyond the strategic plan. Journal of the Faculty of Industrial Engineering, 12(2), 27-31.
Cruz P., Medina J. (2015) Selection of methods for the construction of future scenarios. Entramado, 11(1), 32-46.
Curtis E., Sweeney B. (2017) Managing different types of innovation: Mutually reinforcing management control systems and the generation of dynamic tension. Accounting and Business Research, 47(3), 313-343. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00014788.2016.1255585
David F. (2003) Concepts of Strategic Management, Mexico: Pearson Educación.
De Jouvenel B. (1967) The Art of Conjecture, London: Weidenfeld and Nicholson.
Drouillard J. (2018) Current situation and future trends for beef production in the United States of America - A review. Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences, 31(7), 1007-1016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5713/ajas.18.0428
ESPAE (2016) Strategic guidance for decision making: Beef cattle industry, Guayaquil: Escuela Politécnica del Litoral.
FAO (2020) In Action - Special Programme for Food Security, Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. http://www.fao.org/in-action/, дата обращения 26.07.2022.
Fergnani A. (2020) Futures Triangle 2.0: Integrating the Futures Triangle with Scenario Planning. Foresight, 22(2), 178-188. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-10-2019-0092
Flaig A., Kindström D., Ottosson M. (2021) Market-shaping strategies: A conceptual framework for generating market outcomes. Industrial Marketing Management, 96(7), 254-266. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indmarman.2021.06.004
Godet M. (1993) From anticipation to action, Barcelona: MARCOMBO.
Godet M., Durance P. (2011) Strategic foresight for companies and territories, Paris: DUNOD.
Gondard P., Mazurek H. (2001) Thirty years of agrarian reform and colonization in Ecuador (1964-1994): Spatial dynamics. Estudios de Geografia, 10, 15-40.
Gándara G., Osorio F. (2017) Prospective methods: Handbook for the study and construction of the future, Mexico: Paidós.
Hernández C. G., Hurtado J. (2020) Prospective structural analysis. Key variables for the organizational development of Fundación de Acción Social Cáritas. Revista Empresarial, 14(1), 61-72.
Hernández C.G., Hurtado J. (2020) Post-pandemic prospective scenarios for the internationalization of Ecuador's agrifood sector to the year 2035. Journal of Political and Strategic Studies, 8(2), 36-66.
Hernández-Ordoñez C.G., Cisneros-Corrales E.P. (2020) Prospective study: Scenarios for Santo Domingo as a sustainable territory to the year 2040. Tsafiqui Revista Científica en Ciencias Sociales, 11(14), 37-54. DOI: https://doi.org/10.29019/tsafiqui.v14i1.672
Inayatullah S. (2008) Six pillars: Futures thinking for transforming. Foresight, 10(1), 4-21. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680810855991
OECD (2020) OECD-FAO - Agricultural Outlook 2020-2029, Paris: OECD Publishing.
Ortega F. (2016) Prospectiva empresarial: Manual de corporate foresight para América Latina, Lima: Universidad de Lima.
Paliszkiewicz J. (2020) Management in the Era of Big Data: Issues and Challenges, London: Auerbach Publications.
Poli R. (2018) A note on the classification of future-related methods. European Journal of Futures Research, 6(15), 2-9. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-018-0145-9
Ramirez A., Polack A. (2020) Inferential statistics. Choosing a nonparametric statistical test in scientific research. Horizon of Science, 10(19), 191-208.
Rastoin J.L., Ghersi G. (2010) Le système alimentaire mondial: Concepts et méthodes, analyses et dynamiques, Versailles: Éditions Quae.
Rivas A.C., Toabanda P.A., Vergara A.P., Rivas W.C. (2016) Transferencia Tecnologica Del Sector Ganadero En Santo Domingo-Ecuador, Mexico: Observatorio Económico Latinoamericano. https://www.eumed.net/cursecon/ecolat/ec/2016/ganaderia.html, дата обращения 09.11.2022.
Schwab K. (2016) The fourth industrial revolution, Bogotá: World Economic Forum.
Schwartz P. (1991) The art of the long view: Paths to strategic insight for yourself and your company, New York: Bantam.
Sims R., Flammini A., Bracco S. (2015) Opportunities for Agri-Food Chains to Become Energy-Smart, Auckland: FAO Climate, Energy and Tenure Division.
Tena J., Prieto J., Fagoaga C., Calvo A., Chirivella J., Bueso J. (2018) Potential of science to address the hunger issue: Ecology, biotechnology, cattle breeding and the large pantry of the sea. Journal of Innovation & Knowledge, 3(2), 82-89. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jik.2017.12.007
Van Dorsser C., Taneja P. (2020) An integrated three-layered foresight framework. Foresight, 22(2), 250-272. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-05-2019-0039
Winkowska J., Szpilko D. (2020) Methodology for Integration of Smart City Dimensions in the Socialised Process of Creating City Development. European Research Studies Journal, 23(3), 524-547.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.