Abstract
Since the early 1990s technology forecasts play an increasingly important role in the S&T and innovation policies at the international, country, regional and corporate levels. In this regard, significant attention is given to monitoring and evaluation of such activities to improve their efficiency and quality of outputs. Since 2004, the VDI Technology Centre (Germany) conducts a comparative analysis of technology Foresight studies implemented in China, Japan, France, UK, the USA and the EU using 16 selected technology topics. Despite the many differences observed between the studies, we note some significant common issues: all the foresight studies we analysed deal in detail with the issues of energy, health / medicine / nutrition, biotechnology / life sciences and nano- / microsystems technology, and also with ICT, electronics, manufacturing, process and material technology, environment, defence and space technologies. Herewith, all the technology forecasts we compared assumed that progression in sustainability /environment and ICT was a prerequisite for progress in other areas.
References
BIS (2010) Technology and Innovation Futures: UK Growth Opportunities for the 2020s. London: Department for Business, Innovation and Skills. Режим доступа: http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/general-publications/10-1252-technology-and-innovation-futures.pdf, дата обращения 06.03.2013.
BIS (2012) Technology and Innovation Futures: UK Growth Opportunities for the 2020s - 2012 Refresh. London: Department for Business, Innovation and Skills. Режим доступа: http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/horizon-scanning-centre/12-1157-technology-innovation-futures-uk-growth-opportunities-2012-refresh.pdf, дата обращения 06.03.2013.
Braun A., Holtmannspötter D., Korte S., Rijkers-Defrasne S., Zweck A. (2013) Technologieprognosen - Internationaler Vergleich 2013 (ZTC-Band 97). Düsseldorf: VDI Technologiezentrum GmbH.
CAS (2010) Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050. General Report. Beijing: Chinese Academy of Sciences.
DGCIS (2011) Technologies-Clés 2015. Paris: Direction Générale de la Compétitivité, de l’Industrie et des Services. Режим доступа: http://www.dgcis.redressement-productif.gouv.fr/files/files/directions_services/politique-et-enjeux/innovation/tc2015/technologies-cles-2015.pdf, дата обращения 26.03.2013.
European Commission (2011) Key Enabling Technologies - Final Report by High Level Expert Group. Brussels: European Commission. Режим доступа: http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/sectors/ict/files/kets/hlg_report_final_en.pdf, дата обращения 15.02.2013.
European Commission (2012) Eine europäische Strategie für Schlüsseltechnologien - Eine Brücke zu Wachstum und Beschäftigung (COM(2012) 341 final). Brussels: European Commission. Режим доступа: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2012: 0341:FIN:DE:PDF, дата обращения 14.02.2013.
HNI (2013) Vorausschau und Technologieplanung. Vol. 318. Berlin: Jürgen Gausemeier, HNI-Verlagsschriftenreihe.
Holtmannspötter D., Rijkers-Defrasne S., Glauner C., Korte S., Zweck A. (2006) Aktuelle Technologieprognosen im internationalen Vergleich. Übersichtsstudie (ZTC-Band 58). Düsseldorf: VDI Technologiezentrum GmbH.
Holtmannspötter D., Rijkers-Defrasne S., Ploetz C., Thaller-Honold S., ZweckA. (2010) Technologieprognosen - Internationaler Vergleich 2010 (ZTC-Band 88). Düsseldorf: VDI Technologiezentrum.
NISTEP (2010a) The 9th Science and Technology Foresight Contribution of Science and Technology to Future Society - The 9th Delphi Survey 2010. Report № 140. Tokyo: Japan Science and Technology Foresight Center, National Institute of Science and Technology Policy. Режим доступа: http://www.nistep.go.jp/achiev/sum/eng/rep140e/pdf/rep140se.pdf, дата обращения 15.02.2013.
NISTEP (2010b) The 9th Science and Technology Foresight Contribution of Science and Technology to Future Society - Future Scenarios Opened up by Science and Technology 2010. Report № 141. Tokyo: Japan Science and Technology Foresight Center, National Institute of Science and Technology Policy. Режим доступа: http://www.nistep.go.jp/achiev/sum/eng/rep141e/pdf/rep141se.pdf, дата обращения 15.02.2013.
NISTEP (2010c) The 9th Science and Technology Foresight - Contribution of Science and Technology to Future Society - Capability of Local Regions for the Green Innovation 2010. Report № 142. Tokyo: Japan Science and Technology Foresight Center, National Institute of Science and Technology Policy. Режим доступа: http://www.nistep.go.jp/achiev/sum/eng/rep142e/pdf/rep142se.pdf, дата обращения 15.02.2013.
NISTEP (2010d) Contribution of Science and Technology to Future Society. Report № 145. Tokyo: Japan Science and Technology Foresight Center, National Institute of Science and Technology Policy.
PCAST (2010a) Realizing the Full Potential of Health Information Technology to Improve Healthcare for Americans: The Path Forward. Washington, DC: President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology. Режим доступа: http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/pcast-health-it-report.pdf, дата обращения 13.03.2013.
PCAST (2010b) Report to the President on Accelerating the Pace of Change in Energy Technologies Through an Integrated Federal Energy Policy. Washington, DC: President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology. Режим доступа: http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/pcast-energy-tech-report.pdf, дата обращения 15.03.2013.
PCAST (2010c) Designing a Digital Future: Federally Funded Research and Development Networking and Information Technology. Washington, DC: President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology. Режим доступа: http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/pcast-nitrd-report-2010.pdf, дата обращения 15.03.2013.
PCAST (2012a) Report to the President on Capturing Domestic Competitive Advantage in Advanced Manufacturing. Washington, DC: President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology. Режим доступа: http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/pcast_amp_steering_committee_report_final_july_27_2012.pdf, дата обращения 14.03.2013.
PCAST (2012b) Report to the President on Capturing Domestic Competitive Advantage in Advanced Manufacturing - Annex 1: Technology Development Workstream Report. Washington, DC: President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology. Режим доступа: http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/amp_final_report_annex_1_technology_development_july_update.pdf, дата обращения 15.03.2013.
PCAST (2012c) Report to the President and Congress on the Fourth Assessment of the National Nanotechnology Initiative. Washington, DC: President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology. Режим доступа: http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/PCAST_2012_Nanotechnology_FINAL.pdf, дата обращения 15.03.2013.
Seiler P., Holtmannspötter D., Albertshauser U. (2004) Internationale Technologieprognosen im Vergleich. Übersichtsstudie (ZTC-Band 52). Düsseldorf: VDI Technologiezentrum GmbH.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.