Foresight for Anticipatory Water Resources Governance

Abstract

A conceptual framework is proposed for analyzing and forecasting catastrophic regime shifts in water resource availability and quality, synthesizing catastrophe theory, contemporary understandings of critical transitions in socio-ecological systems, and the methodological tools of foresight. It is shown that ignoring nonlinear dynamics, threshold effects, and hysteresis can lead to a systematic underestimation of strategic threats to the energy sector, agriculture, industry, and urban infrastructure. The objective necessity of transitioning from a reactive model of water resources management to a proactive one, integrated into the long-term agenda of sustainable development and national security, is demonstrated. An integrated approach is proposed that combines early warning signals, scenario analysis, economic instruments, and multilevel basin management. Based on an analysis of the Russian context (including a critical reassessment of the 2014–2015 scenarios developed by the Institute for Strategic and Economic Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics), strategic recommendations for state water policy are formulated.

Strategic dialogue is a key methodological element of the proposed approach, viewed as one of the prerequisites for effective scenario planning in the public water sector. In contrast to the traditional sequence of “scenarios → discussion,” this study justifies the reverse sequence: strategic dialogue is used to align objectives, identify institutional barriers, overcome bureaucratic inertia, and establish a common language among stakeholders in the water management sector. Only after this are scenarios developed—not as abstract forecasts, but as jointly agreed-upon boundaries of a plausible future—which increases the likelihood of their actual use in adjusting public water policy.