Scenario Planning Evolution in Two Parallel Paths: French La-Prospective School vs. English Shell School

Abstract

Although a consensus about scenario planning exists among the experts in futures studies, less comparative analysis has been done on different schools of thought in the field. The two mainstream schools of thought identified in this case study, which is the focus of this paper, are the French La-Prospective School and the English Shell School. Historical and discourse analysis methods are being used for this purpose. At first, the history and evolution of each of these two schools are investigated in three different generations. This is followed by introducing the key thinkers of each school. Similarities such as attracting participation, consensus, and approaching strategy are discussed. After that, the genealogy, terminology, methodology, and epistemology of the two schools are examined. Finally, we look at the future of the two schools and their integration. The models and diagrams developed here will be a good guide for future researchers.