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4–12
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The authors answer the question yes. This argument is justified by the history of the evolution of mankind’s perceptions about the future. It is also stressed that civilization in its development came to a critical point, which may culminate in a collapse or a breakthrough in the future. The consequences are heavily dependent on the decisions taken today. The desired future can be achieved only if the key actors of society have an agreed vision for the future. To provide such a vision is the main aim of Foresight. The paper consider distinctions of Foresight from traditional forecasting, its evolution and consequent increasing of impact, allowing Foresight to remain an adequate tool to answer the complex challenges of social development. |
Strategies
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13–17
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Implementation of existing technological advantage is critical to the strategic development and performance of BP, in particular, for development solutions that meet the energy and climate challenges of the XXI century. This article briefly describes the context which determines BP’s long-term strategy of technological development, as well as the principles for selection of promising technology areas. The scope of application of advanced energy technologies and markets in key sectors - energy consumers are described. |
Innovation and Economy
Science
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36–45
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This document presents a new bibliometric method that enables us to comprehend and track the changing nature of scientific activities. Special emphasis is put on understanding how nanoscience is evolving across disciplines and across countries and regions. The analysis addresses questions like: How are scientific areas in nanoscience linked to each others? How can the multidisciplinary character of nanoscience be assessed? Which countries play a prominent role in nanoscience? How can international knowledge flows be measured? |
Government
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48–55
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The paper presents the current state of research and innovation in France, describes the approaches to S&T policy, analyses tools for support of innovation and technological development. There are continuing problems of interaction between universities and research institutions in France that are essential for the country’s system of science, as well as the lack of research in the business sector. |
Master Class
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56–65
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The proposed material is unique because it evaluates the results of a Foresight project after the expiry of the planned time horizon - 10 years. It is shown that Foresight had very limited impact on national innovation policy. Although it contributed to the development of consensus among stakeholders, increased their awareness and public participation, however in identifying new technological purposes its success has been far more modest. The author concludes that thoroughly planned activities under Foresight would be much more in favor of innovation policy. Particularly it is needed to clarify the motivations of key actors that would require further research of their behavior. |
Images of the Future
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66–73
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In a relatively short time, futurology has acquired the status of a scientific discipline. In November 2007, the international humanitarian social fund "Znanie" has declared an open competition among young scientists on the history and futurology. It involves awarding 18 prizes at 200-500 thousand roubles per each, 10 prizes to young scientists under the age of 25 years, the allocation of grants for research projects. And soon there was an event by which futurology in Russia has received official recognition and political legitimacy: a round table with a complicated name - "Global Strategic Forum" The Future - in search of a coordinator? '", took place in Moscow. The keynote speaker was the" father "of futurology Alvin Toffler. This fact has motivated the author to put forward a working hypothesis, "social engineering is a technological application of futurology," which is discussed in this article. |
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