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Journal of the National Research University Higher School of Economics

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SSN 1995-459X print
E-ISSN 2312-9972 online
ISSN 2500-2597 online English

Editor-in-chief
Leonid Gokhberg

   




Dmitry Belousov1, Igor Frolov2
  • 1 Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, 47 Nakhimovsky Ave., 117418 Moscow, Russia
  • 2 Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 47 Nakhimovsky Ave., 117418 Moscow, Russia

Long-Term Science and Technology Forecasting: Methodologies, Future Visions, Scenarios of Development

2008. Vol. 2. No. 3. P. 54–66 [issue contents]
The paper considers methodological aspects of long-term technology forecasting with reference to modern economical development of Russia. It describes a matrix of long-term scenarios of technological development of Russia based either on primary-energy or innovation-active orientation of the national economy. The paper also provides the forecasts of promising technologies in several priority sectors in the framework of the scenario of local technological leadership that is more preferable for Russia. Finally, it considers different kinds of risks (technological, administrative, political) that should be included in long-term forecasts.
Citation: Belousov D., Frolov I. (2008) Dolgosrochnyy nauchno-tekhnologicheskiy prognoz: metodologii postroeniya, kontury tekhnologicheskogo budushchego, stsenarii razvitiya [Long-Term Science and Technology Forecasting: Methodologies, Future Visions, Scenarios of Development]. Foresight-Russia, vol. 2, no 3, pp. 54-66 (in Russian)
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