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Journal of the National Research University Higher School of Economics

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E-ISSN 2500-2597

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Leonid Gokhberg





Dmitry Belousov 1, Kirill Mikhailenko, Alexander Apokin 1
  • 1 Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, 47 Nakhimovsky Ave., 117418 Moscow, Russia

Key Parameters of Russia's Long-Term Economic Development: A Scenario Analysis

2010. Vol. 4. No. 1. P. 4–18 [issue contents]
Today both on the national and business levels the efforts are being made to tackle two different issues: implementation of anti-crisis measures and forming the ground for a policy aimed at changing technological profile of the Russian economy. Building long-term scenarios of economic development becomes the most challenging task. The paper investigates three possible trajectories of development, based on the standard methods of economic analysis and R&D forecasting as well as unique approaches and models. The authors describe conditions and liable results of the most promising — innovation-based — scenario and characterize factors which make alternative prognoses relevant.
Citation: Belousov D., Mikhailenko K., Apokin A. (2010) Ctsenarnye otsenki osnovnykh parametrov dolgosrochnogo razvitiya rossiyskoy ekonomiki [Key Parameters of Russia's Long-Term Economic Development: A Scenario Analysis]. Foresight-Russia, vol. 4, no 1, pp. 4-18 (in Russian)
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