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Journal of the National Research University Higher School of Economics

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E-ISSN 2500-2597

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Leonid Gokhberg





Ozcan Saritas, Yanuar Nugroho

Seeing the Invisible and Making Sense of It. Scanning, Networks and Scenario Analysis

2011. Vol. 5. No. 3. P. 58–69 [issue contents]

Yanuar Nugroho  — Research Fellow, Institute of Innovation Research, University of Manchester (UK). E-mail: Yanuar.Nugroho@manchester.ac.uk  Address: The University of Manchester, Booth Street West, Manchester, M15 6PB, UK

Ozcan Saritas — Research Fellow, Institute of Innovation Research, University of Manchester (UK). E-mail: Ozcan.Saritas@manchester.ac.uk  Address: The University of Manchester, Booth Street West, Manchester, M15 6PB, UK

In parallel with the increasing complexity and uncertainty of social, technological, economic, environmental, political, and value systems (STEEPV), there is a growing need for a systemic approach in Foresight. This paper proposes a methodological approach to demonstrate how the ideas of systems thinking can be applied in Foresight practice. The methodology is based on the joint use of horizon scanning, network analysis, and scenario methods. Horizon Scanning uncovers emerging issues and identifies future surprises and shocks. Network Analysis is a powerful approach to analyzing both the whole system of relations and parts of the system at the same time and hence it reveals the otherwise hidden structural properties of the systems. Network Analysis data allow for the elaboration of a series of Evolutionary Scenarios that not only are capable of giving a snapshot of a particular future, but also explaining the emerging transformation pathways of events and situations from the present into the future as systemic narratives.

The main emphasis is given to network analysis as a tool for strengthening systemic foresight base. The authors propose two ways to incorporate Network Analysis in Foresight – by its straightforward inclusion as a methodological tool to analyze foresight data as well as by integrating network perspective into the entire Foresight process. In particular, it is noted that applying Network Analysis allows for better mapping of the issues under scrutiny of the Foresight exercise as well as stakeholders to be involved. During the action phase, network perspective can contribute to set up more effective collaboration and interdisciplinary actions.

The application of the described approach is illustrated by the case of «Big Picture Survey» which is aimed at gaining more insights into prospective crucial issues, trends, drivers of change, weak signals, wild cards, and discontinuities, thus informing further ad hoc Foresight studies.  

 

Citation: Saritas O., Nugroho Y. (2011) Uvidet' i osoznat' nevidimoe. Skanirovanie, setevoy i stsenarnyy analiz [Seeing the Invisible and Making Sense of It. Scanning, Networks and Scenario Analysis ]. Foresight-Russia, vol. 5, no 3, pp. 58-69 (in Russian)
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