ISSN 1995-459X print E-ISSN 2312-9972 online ISSN 2500-2597 online English
Editor-in-chief Leonid Gokhberg
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2012. vol. 6. No. 1
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Interview
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6–10
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Interview with Ozcan Saritas (University of Manchester, UK), Editor of “Foresight” — one of the leading academic journals on the global future.Foresightis oriented toward wide spread distribution with the aim of the expansion of knowledge and linkages to participation in its forum. It aims to demonstrate best practice in the design and implementation of Foresight methodology and use of quantitative and qualitative methods. This edition covers applications of Foresight at the supra-national, national and regional levels in a wide variety of sectors and thematic areas. It contains overviews of Foresight studies, including the formation of new networks and working communities; it articulates widely-shared and divergent visions. The journal serves as an important outlet for the dissemination of findings of Foresight exercises to wider social constituents and makes substantial contributions to policy learning and policy transfer processes. In his interview with our reporter, Ozcan Saritas, talks about the mission and aims ofForesight, the criteria for the selection of papers, the dimension of editorial activities and plans for the future, including prospects of bi-lateral co-operation withForesight-Russia. He also discusses new challenges for Foresight activities in the context of the changes and developments taking place in the world and the contributions of the systemic approach to long-term forecasting. |
Strategies
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12–25
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Alexander Sokolov — Director, International Academic Foresight Centre, and Deputy Director, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University «Higher School of Economics». E-mail: sokolov@hse.ru Address: National Research University «Higher School of Economics», 20 Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation. Alexander Chulok— Head, Division for S&T Forecasting, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University «Higher School of Economics». E-mail: achulok@hse.ru Address: National Research University «Higher School of Economics», 20 Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation. This paper reviews national features in the general evolution of science and technology (S&T) foresight over the last decade. Foresight has made a transition from thematic papers and policy briefs to a complex set of methods integrated in the framework of S&T and innovation policy making. Foresight also addresses broad social and economic issues along with conventional S&T problems. It focuses often on interdisciplinary fields and cross-sector problems. It has witnessed the introduction of such new methods as weak signals and wild cards, and it has benefitted from the integration of qualitative and quantitative approaches. Russian S&T foresight follows global trends. It has given support for revisions of the national S&T priorities and critical technologies. In 2007-2010, two cycles of the National S&T Foresight (initiated by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation) were completed. They resulted in the creation of frameworks and expert networks for future studies. Foresight culture has been finding deeper roots in Russia.. The paper addresses mainly the key features of the third (ongoing) cycle of the national S&T Foresight (2011) against the background of the first two cycles and the international trends. This cycle represents a wider coverage of issues (macroeconomic scenarios, trends in basic research, S&T resources, future demand for skills, and global drivers of S&T developments); more complicated methodologies (bibliometric analysis, expert panels, surveys, roadmapping, and quantitative models); and a combination of “market pull” and “technology push” approaches toward estimating future developments. This cycle is building a wider network of experts at new Foresight centres at various Russian research universities. It concludes with a discussion of some barriers still to be overcome in Foresight studies: integration of sectoral visions, deeper analyses of some scientific disciplines, stronger integration into policy making, and spreading among business and research communities. |
Innovation and Economy
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26–36
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Jean Guinet — Head, Research Laboratory for Science and Technology Studies, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University — Higher School of Economics. E-mail: jguinet@hse.ru Address: National Research University «Higher School of Economics», 20 Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation. Dirk Meissner — Deputy Head, Research Laboratory for Science and Technology Studies, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University — Higher School of Economics. E-mail: dmeissner@hse.ru Address: National Research University «Higher School of Economics», 20 Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation. The paper analyzes the contribution of public policy to the open innovation process. Innovation processes are dynamic and global. Actors must adapt their strategies to new contexts, including the increasingly knowledge-based global competition. They must reconcile the need for speed in commercial exploitation of new products in order to ensure continuous investments with long lead-time in the development of radical innovation capabilities. For the world leaders in their industries, suppliers are becoming ever more important not only as sources but also contributors to innovation, which requires complementary and open interaction between the private sector and public research. The trend is toward open innovation processes, that make possible the overcoming of geographic, institutional and disciplinary barriers. It discusses new approaches to innovation management in the framework of the "open innovation paradigm," which include the following: an output-, or result-, orientation regardless of the place of generation and origin of inputs to innovation; the optimization of all aspects of innovation processes; synchronization of company’s internal innovation strategies with that of external partners; and knowledge sharing through partnerships. The open innovation model is aimed at seizing benefits from networking by all collaborators, irrespective of their size and activity. The authors provide general recommendations on the policy mix to foster innovation in the commercial sector and the public research. These include strengthening the connection between basic and applied research, promotion of networking and strategic collaborative projects, and special emphasis on supporting small and medium enterprises. |
Science
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38–58
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Maxim Kotsemir — Junior Research Fellow, Research Laboratory for Science and Technology Studies, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University «Higher School of Economics». Address: National Research University «Higher School of Economics», 20 Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation. E-mail: mkotsemir@hse.ru This paper analyses publication activities of scientists in Russia and selected other countries for a cross-country comparison of their integration into the global scientific community. It adds to the literature assessing global, regional and national trends in knowledge production to help policy makers develop a more flexible and effective science policy. It provides an overview of the dynamics of main indicators of scientific publications and their citation in Russia and leading countries over the period 1995–2010. Based on this analysis, the author estimates Russia’s position within the global scientific community. The data are drawn from Scopus and the Web of Science databases. For Russia, the focus is on publication activity in specific areas of science, identified as specializations. In particular, the level of citation of the most highly Russian publications is noted. Also, the paper focuses on the integration of Russian researchers in the international scientific community, as measured by the number of publications co-authored with foreign researchers. Finally, it reviews the methodological approaches of the evaluation of citations, focusing on resulting problems which require further investigations. The analysis shows that Russia has lost more international status in scientific publishing activity than other countries of the studied sample. At the same time the other BRIC nations as well as some other developing Asian countries have significantly improved their international positioning in this regard. |
Master Class
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60–73
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Victor van Rij — Senior Scientific Staffmember, Advisory Council for Science and Technology Policy (Netherlands). Аddress: Javastraat 42, 2585 AP Den Haag, Netherlands. E-mail: v.van.rij@awt.nl From 2007 to 2010, the EC funded a series of blue sky projects on foresight, including on new methodologies for horizon scanning in several European countries. The projects resulted in the evaluation of current methods for obtaining and processing scanning data and new conceptual thinking that may bridge the gap between scanning activities and policy-making. This paper provides an overview of conceptual thinking in two projects, SESTI and FAR Horizon. The key thinking is about emerging issues and about imaginative or potential wild cards, both considered to be potential storylines for future development or events that require policy action. Storylines come close to the concept of future narratives, as used in the policy discourse regarding aging in the Netherlands. The shows that narratives are used by policymakers when they fit a particular strategy, but that the narratives must compete with both present-day (experienced “past reality”) and future stories in policy discourse. The author describes strong “future” narratives and gives special attention those that include imaginative wild cards. The communicative strength of a future narrative (and the included issue) is decisive for its uptake in the discourse (in policy and business communities). However, this strength is only partly connected to its scientific or factual evidence base, since it may contain many elements that are not rational to make it strong. The paper is concerned with what makes a «strong» narrative. Next to the authority of the messenger and the interests of the receiver, its psychological and emotional appeal to the audience and its historical context make it persuasive. Examples are given to show that future narratives are used to influence policy debates and decision making. Some have even succeeded in shaping the future to the interest of the author or for the benefit of society. The argument is that strong imaginative wild cards under the right conditions can have a powerful shaping effect, sometimes as shaping as that of real wild cards on the future. |
Events
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74–85
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This is an overview of discussions held at three workshops at the Higher School of Economics from December 7 to 9, 2011. The events organized by the HSE Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge were attended by leading international experts in the field of Foresight and science, technology and innovation (STI) policy. International workshops on technology platforms (TPs) have been held at the HSE on a regular basis since 2010. They address Russian and international practices in the shaping and functioning of TPs and the possibility of adapting international best practices in Russia, thus serving as a learning forum. In 2011 the discussion focused on practicalities of cooperation between Russian and European platforms, including an assessment of the prospects for increasing coordination and building communications. Special attention was paid to some general issues concerning the creation and operation of TPs, like the involvement of companies in pre-competitive research, the distribution of intellectual property rights between parties, the strengthening of university-industry relations as a key element of TPs, the involvement of government in the establishment and operation of platforms, and the role of small and medium-sized enterprises. The workshop participants also discussed opportunities and threats of international cooperation in STI as well as the contribution of TPs to further development of cooperation. The objectives, framework, and interim results of selected Russian and European platforms were presented. The second workshop reported the results of the Russian Long-Term S&T Foresight 2030. Compared to previous rounds, the coverage of economic sectors and pool of experts was significantly increased through expansion of industry-related research. The current round presumes the implementation of 17 projects to be integrated at the next stage. Its findings will form the basis of strategic recommendations for innovative development of selected sectors, and it will be embedded into elaboration of STI policy. The third workshop was devoted to the development of methodologies and international practices of Foresight studies. Particular attention was paid to new Foresight tools (i.e. horizon scanning, modeling, and game theory) and the factors that foster influential outputs and outcomes in successful Foresight. |
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