Journal of the National Research University Higher School of Economics

Ekaterina Makarova — Research Intern, Research Laboratory for Science and Technology Studies. E-mail: kmakarova@hse.ru

Anna Sokolova — Senior Research Fellow, Research Laboratory for Science and Technology Studies. Е-mail: avsokolova@hse.ru

Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University Higher School of Economics

Address: National Research University Higher School of Economics, 20, Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000

As the impact of strategic decision-making at the corporate, sectoral and national levels increase, there are growing demands for high quality and solid Foresight outputs. In this regard, a timely detection and elimination of problems in Foresight projects is of great importance. A thorough evaluation of criteria and methods used in Foresight analysis would permit the improved effectiveness of Foresight activities. The results could be set against the aims to decide on the feasibility of projects and identify ways to improve them. Despite great interest in Foresight evaluation demonstrated by  stakeholders at various levels, the general principles for conducting it have not yet been formulated, which hinders its development and the diffusion of successful expertise.

The purpose of this paper is to identify the basic elements-criteria and methods—used in evaluating national Foresight. It presents the most interesting results for specific tasks, the themes examined, the methods and the findings, in general. In addition, the study allowed some inference about theory and practice of project management. The study reveals that a key motivation for evaluation of Foresight projects is to provide feedback to national Foresight organizations and identify areas for further development. Evaluation is used to guide Foresight (in varying degrees) and provide lessons learned for future projects (for example, simplifying implementation, involving business and social organizations, recognizing the need for better compliance with the methodology and objectives of the study participants).

The paper serves to develop a general methodology for assessing national Foresight programmes. A further agenda is to develop a comprehensive analysis of Foresight, ensure comparability of results of Foresight evaluation initiatives in different countries, promote standardization of evaluation procedures.