ISSN 1995-459X print E-ISSN 2312-9972 online ISSN 2500-2597 online English
Editor-in-chief Leonid Gokhberg
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2014. vol. 8. No. 2
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Strategies
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6–15
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Since the early 1990s technology forecasts play an increasingly important role in the S&T and innovation policies at the international, country, regional and corporate levels. In this regard, significant attention is given to monitoring and evaluation of such activities to improve their efficiency and quality of outputs. Since 2004, the VDI Technology Centre (Germany) conducts a comparative analysis of technology Foresight studies implemented in China, Japan, France, UK, the USA and the EU using 16 selected technology topics. Despite the many differences observed between the studies, we note some significant common issues: all the foresight studies we analysed deal in detail with the issues of energy, health / medicine / nutrition, biotechnology / life sciences and nano- / microsystems technology, and also with ICT, electronics, manufacturing, process and material technology, environment, defence and space technologies. Herewith, all the technology forecasts we compared assumed that progression in sustainability /environment and ICT was a prerequisite for progress in other areas. |
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16–29
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The article presents the economic concepts of advanced manufacturing and suggests promising interconnected technologies that could lead to new industrial infrastructures. The authors estimate Russia’s standing in popular areas of advanced manufacturing (e.g. 3D-printing, Internet of things, and composite materials). An analysis of government policies for advanced manufacturing in the USA and UK revealed several common elements, which include creation of consortia, dissemination of diagnostic monitoring, and implementation of systemic measures that link training of personnel, support of research and development, and small businesses. The focus on the later pre-competitive stages of product development by the industrial consortia has been shown to be an improvement over their previous practices. We analyse actual practices in Russia in the context of previous experiences of cooperation between research institutions, universities, and industry, and we consider the major hurdles related to the current state of research, financing, and management in the relevant technological fields. The article suggests organizational measures to support advanced manufacturing technologies by linking them to existing infrastructural projects and development programs that are currently implemented in Russia. Consortia involving research institutions and industrial companies are identified as the core for the development of advanced manufacturing. These consortia, which can be based at universities, will concentrate on applied research and development and prototyping of new technologies, as well as on personnel training for the new technological fields and industries. |
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30–45
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The shipbuilding sector’s multiple contributions to the social and economic development, as well as to science and technology, of major maritime countries mean that the sector attracts strong interest of entrepreneurs, researchers, and government agencies. Meanwhile the diverse forms of inter-industrial interaction, and specific aspects associated with building high-technology vessels require significant investments. Hence that is a significant challenge in a context of increasingly uncertain future demand for innovative products. What will the global shipbuilding industry look like in the next 10-15 years? What market niches will open ‘windows of opportunity’ for the Russian shipbuilding industry? Experts from industrial companies and research organisations answered these and other questions as part of a foresight study conducted by the HSE ISSEK jointly with the Krylov State Research Centre. The industry is highly dependent on various global environmental, energy, demographic, food, transport and technological factors. Accordingly, the prospects for technological development of the Russian shipbuilding and ship repair industry were analysed in the context of global, national, and industry-specific challenges, trends, drivers and limitations. The study compiled a vision of the global shipbuilding’s future based on the analysis of the expert community’s opinions, strategic documents, programmes, and forecasts. The vision comprises multiple images covering more than 400 technologies and products grouped into 11 subject areas: ecology and environment protection; engines and mechanisms; ship designs; new materials and processing technologies; information technologies and automated systems; navigation; telecommunications; energy supply and energy saving; safety and security; management and control; vessels’ life cycle technologies; production technologies. Analysis of inter-industrial interaction revealed synergies by applying technological innovations created in other industries in the shipbuilding sector. The four possible shipbuilding development scenarios until 2030 are proposed taking into account key uncertainty factors and strategic ‘forks.’ These scenarios enabled us to identify high-priority areas with a potential to implement the full innovation cycle – from research and development to commercialisation of end products. The study’s plausible conclusion is that the Russian shipbuilding industry’s competitive advantages in the global market can be achieved by implementing active government policies to support the production of high-technology vessels and marine equipment to develop mineral deposits on the continental shelf. |
Master Class
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44–56
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Globally, advanced countries and institutions put emphasis on Foresight studies that create spaces for structured dialogue with a focus on systemic or transformative innovation. Aligned with the coordination of societal actors the aim is to increase their ability to orient innovation systems to address common challenges. In doing so it increases the relevance of foresight activities and its impacts in the decision-making processes. The paper describes evolution of Foresight in Brazil comparing it with worldwide dynamics. It highlights five partly interconnected Foresight generations and two Foresight modes, describes their essence. Special attention is paid to activities of the Center for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation (CGEE). In order to promote a transformative change in this direction and support the design and implementation of Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) policies in Brazil, CGEE is shifting the focus of its foresight activities. It is moving from a focus on optimisation to one that builds a bridge between optimisation and contingency at the same time that it invites and embraces uncertainty, complexity and creativity throughout the process. Our aim is to use the debates on future as a trigger to spark imagination and expand the collective understanding of the present. These are then translated into actual recommendations for policy design and implementation or into new strategic questions that should be investigated and addressed in order to reorient the Brazilian National Innovation System (NIS). |
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56–70
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Information overflow and dynamic market changes encourage managers to search for a relevant and eloquent model to describe their business. This paper provides a new framework for visualizing business models, guided by well-shaped visualization based on a mind mapping technique introduced by Tony Buzan. The authors’ approach amplifies Alexander Ostervalder’s ideas on the new level of abstraction and well-structured description of business models. It also seeks to simplify the Osterwalder model. As a result, the new form of visualization enhances perception, increases the quality of business communication and decreases cognitive pressure. To evaluate the proposed framework’s efficiency, the authors conducted a pilot study involving a survey of 22 experienced top-managers of Russian companies and examined their perceptions of three ways of describing the same business model: a linear text, a Canvas business model by Osterwalder, and a business model mind mapping template. We used Mindjet, the popular mind- mapping software, to conduct the experiment. Results confirmed the hypothesis that the mind-mapping visualization framework we developed is ‘cognitive scaffolding’ and is positively associated with managers’ and employees’ improved perception and understanding of the business model, which allows them to communicate, share and manipulate business model knowledge easily. |
Events
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72–81
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The two-day workshop held by the HSE Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge consisted of a meeting of the Interdepartmental Commission on Technology Foresight, a round table and four thematic sessions. The participants discussed issues concerning the creation of a national S&T Foresight system, sectoral science and technology (S&T) priorities and STI policy tools. Presentations were made by representatives of the University of Manchester (UK), Georgia Institute of Technology (USA), University of Ottawa (Canada), Hungarian Academy of Sciences, University College London (UK), RF Ministry of Education and Science, RF Ministry of Economic Development, RAS Energy Research Institute, the Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow Innovation Development Centre, Higher School of Economics and many other organizations. Experts agreed that the results of the Russian long-term S&T Foresight 2030, approved by the Russian Government in January 2014, should not only be perceived as a guidance document but more as a basis for effective cooperation between stakeholders. Such an approach would allow a consistent vision to be created and allow for coordinated actions to implement the vision. It is necessary to shift to platform-based solutions for innovative answers to problems that allow flexibility to change the product line, increase strategic depth of the forecast and avoid frequent adjustments to it. In addition, participants noted the need for a more active involvement of business in the Foresight studies. They proposed an ‘open’ format of Foresight studies that does not involve issues of trade secrets, and outlined suggestions for fostering S&T cooperation between companies, universities and research organizations. |
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