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Journal of the National Research University Higher School of Economics

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E-ISSN 2500-2597

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Leonid Gokhberg





Abiodun Adegbile 1, David Sarpong 2,3
  • 1 European University Viadrina, Grosse Scharrnstrasse 59, 15230 Frankfurt (Oder), Germany
  • 2 National Research University Higher School of Economics, 20 Myasnitskaya Str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation
  • 3 University of the West of England, Coldharbour Ln, Bristol BS16 1QY, UK

Managerial Engagement with Scenario Planning: A Conceptual Consumption Approach

2015. Vol. 9. No. 4. P. 73–80 [issue contents]
Scenario development is a widely used tool to reduce uncertainty while making decisions in high velocity environments. Nevertheless, many managers have a blinkered obsession with short-term performance objectives out of a fear of an unpredictable future, as well as a sheer inability to conceive of alternative futures generated in scenario planning exercises. Consequently, the latter have generated little value-added.
The paper analyses the factors determining the willingness of decision makers to actively engage in processes of scenario planning. We suggest that effective incentives to promote interest in scenario planning can be found if we consider decision makers as ‘consumers’ of certain ideas, concepts, and expectations. In particular, we put forward the hypothesis that  the selection of appropriate targets for scenario planning, a commitment to achieving them, expectations of positive outcomes, and increasing the frequency of scenario planning exercises are very likely to generate increased interest from managers and stakeholders in developing scenarios.
Our results have been tested by means of an intuitive and logical approach to scenario planning. We believe that these findings can serve as a springboard for future empirical research that could test the proposed hypotheses by using other in demand methodologies, including probabilistic modified trends, competitive intelligence, and cross sectional effects  analysis.
Citation: Adegbile A., Sarpong D. (2015) Managerial Engagement with Scenario Planning: A Conceptual Consumption Approach. Foresight and STI Governance, vol. 9, no 4, pp. 73–80. DOI: 10.17323/1995-459x.2015.4.73.80
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