Journal of the National Research University Higher School of Economics

Scenario development is a widely used tool to reduce uncertainty while making decisions in high velocity environments. Nevertheless, many managers have a blinkered obsession with short-term performance objectives out of a fear of an unpredictable future, as well as a sheer inability to conceive of alternative futures generated in scenario planning exercises. Consequently, the latter have generated little value-added.
The paper analyses the factors determining the willingness of decision makers to actively engage in processes of scenario planning. We suggest that effective incentives to promote interest in scenario planning can be found if we consider decision makers as ‘consumers’ of certain ideas, concepts, and expectations. In particular, we put forward the hypothesis that  the selection of appropriate targets for scenario planning, a commitment to achieving them, expectations of positive outcomes, and increasing the frequency of scenario planning exercises are very likely to generate increased interest from managers and stakeholders in developing scenarios.
Our results have been tested by means of an intuitive and logical approach to scenario planning. We believe that these findings can serve as a springboard for future empirical research that could test the proposed hypotheses by using other in demand methodologies, including probabilistic modified trends, competitive intelligence, and cross sectional effects  analysis.