Journal of the National Research University Higher School of Economics




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SSN 1995-459X print
E-ISSN 2312-9972 online
ISSN 2500-2597 online English

Leonid Gokhberg

Maksim Vasiev 1, Kexin Bi 1, Artem Denisov 2, Vladimir Bocharnikov 3
  • 1 Harbin Engineering University, China, Nangang district, Nantongdajie 149, 150001, Heilongjiang Province, Harbin, China
  • 2 Kostroma State University, 17 Dzerzhinskogo str., Kostroma 156005, Russian Federation
  • 3 Pacific Geographical Institute, Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Science, 7, Radio str., Vladivostok 690041, Russian Federation

How COVID-19 Pandemics Influences Chinese Economic Sustainability

2020. Vol. 14. No. 2. P. 7–22 [issue contents]
China was the first country to face the COVID-19 outbreak. Owing to the prompt and decisive actions of the authorities, and the consolidation of society, the country has overcome the peak of incidence, and 
economic activity is gradually recovering.
The paper shows how COVID-19 affects the key industries and simulates the impact on supply and transportation channel work. Using the input-output spatial data, migration index indicators, and pandemic spread statistics, we simulate different scenarios for changes in China provinces’ production and consumption under the post-coronavirus epidemic situation. Calculations were made for 31 provinces and 42 sectors of the Chinese economy. We got a model that coronavirus outbreak disaster influences on carbon dioxide emission, level of hazardous wastes and Energy-Resource Efficiency Rating. Basing on financial and migration flows between China provinces, we chose the most effective after-coronavirus outbreak model. Our main recommendation is that one needn’t to carry out any segregation of consumers. It is necessary to distribute the damage as evenly as possible between all provinces equally. We believe that such an approach will allow the Chinese economy to suffer the least damage and recover faster.
Finally, we analyze the development of the post-epidemic financial flows from China to Russia, with the horizon until 2025. In all scenarios, the temporary decline of the bi-directional is expected.
The results of the study may be useful for other countries in developing policies to overcome the post-epidemic crisis.
Citation: Vasiev M., Bi K., Denisov A., Bocharnikov V. (2020) How COVID-19 Pandemics Influences Chinese Economic Sustainability. Foresight and STI Governance, vol. 14, no 2, pp. 7–22. DOI: 
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