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Journal of the National Research University Higher School of Economics

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SSN 1995-459X print
E-ISSN 2312-9972 online
ISSN 2500-2597 online English

Editor-in-chief
Leonid Gokhberg

   




Klaus Mainzer 1,2,3
  • 1 Carl Friedrich von Weizsacker Center, Eberhard Karls University Tubingen, Geschwister-Scholl-Platz, 72074 Tubingen, Germany
  • 2 European Academy of Sciences and Arts, Sankt-Peter-Bezirk 10, 5020 Salzburg, Austria
  • 3 Technical University of Munich, Arcisstrasse 21, 80333 Munchen, Germany

Technology Foresight and Sustainable Innovation Development in the Complex Dynamical Systems View

2020. Vol. 14. No. 4. P. 10–19 [issue contents]

Information and communication technologies (ICT), which are transforming most areas, develop non-linearly. Failure to take into account the nonlinear principles of complex dynamic systems hinders the development of balanced innovation strategies. Companies and governments lose the ability to effectively respond to “grand challenges”. The linear approach does not allow for covering a wide range of critical areas simultaneously in the scope of Foresight projects, it prevents one from applying an interdisciplinary approach to developing innovation strategies, correcting risk assessments, and making informed decisions.This paper proposes a solution: management based on “cyber-physical systems” (CPS) built on dynamic complexity and nonlinearity principles. Such systems not only integrate computing and physical action but are embedded in the everyday environment. They are more than the sum of multiple intelligent computing devices. CPS transform into collective social systems, integrate information, energy, and material flows, and adapt to physical processes.Cyber-physical systems can offer a sustainable information infrastructure which serves as a prerequisite for building up the innovation potential of a company, region, or country. They make it possible to analyze all stages of an innovation project from the technical and organizational points of view simultaneously, cover all possible social consequences and challenges, and identify unexpected promising developments. CPS have a decentralized structure which allows one to solve complex problems and manage large and complex structures in real time, such as an energy grid, transport, smart city, healthcare, and so on.

Citation:

Mainzer K. (2020) Technology Foresight and Sustainable Innovation Development in the Complex Dynamical Systems View. Foresight and STI Governance, vol. 14, no 4, pp. 10–19. DOI: 10.17323/2500-2597.2020.4.10.19

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