Journal of the National Research University Higher School of Economics

Modern socio-economic and technological systems are constantly becoming more complex, and as a consequence, the risks of their failures are increasing. Effective management requires tools appropriate to the new challenges. Complexity science offers a number of concepts that individually help to cope with increasing complexity and its effects to a greater or lesser extent. However, a more effective approach is their skillful synthesis, which allows to cover the system holistically, to identify the origin of potential crises and catastrophes that would otherwise remain «hidden», and to outline preventive corrective measures. The article presents a review and comparative characterization of paradigms of perception of complex systems extrapolated to the sphere of management. Using multilayer causal analysis, the case of two high-profile disasters that occurred with Boeing airplanes is considered. The concept of «orphan systems» is proposed, which allows to catch weak signals about the dangerous drift of the system, to react in time and take an appropriate managerial actions.