Journal of the National Research University Higher School of Economics

On 10 November 2023 an international round table discussion was held at the Higher School of Economics on the topic of “Bridging the Gap Between Technological Complexity and Cognitive Ability in Working With the Future”. The event was hosted by the editorial board of the Foresight and STI Governance Journal. The discussion focused on decision-making and strategy optimisation to meet major challenges in an increasingly complex, due to the rapid technological development, context. Indicators which allow to recognise, even at the initial development stages, the characteristics inherent to a system (company, project), including its identity, strengths and weaknesses, contradictions, errors and tips on how to avoid them, etc. were considered, and ways to use them as a basis for more accurately predicting the prospects of success or failure, and the scope for reorganisation. The participants discussed the best tools and practices which contribute to a better, more holistic understanding of complex processes, to manage them more efficiently.

Marina Boykova (HSE) spoke about advanced tools for managing the increasing complexity and its effects. Complexity today is not limited to large systems such as cities, or energy, logistics, or transportation complexes; it affects almost every aspect of life. The nature of “things” appears to be more complex than ever before due to the rapid development of technology. Systems previously considered autonomous become connected, interdependent, and therefore more complex. Managing the “new” complexity is becoming increasingly challenging, but systems science offers powerful tools. The speaker analysed approaches to finding solutions to complex problems, ways to build up cognitive abilities to deal with diversity, identify various kinds of opportunities, and embark on a road to productive self-organisation. New research results obtained by the HSE Foresight Centre in these areas were presented.

Muddassar Sarfraz (Zhejiang Shuren University, China) made a presentation on businesses’ priorities in adapting to cutting-edge technologies, and to changing market requirements in the context of digital transformation. Artificial intelligence and machine learning open new possibilities for analysing data, taking automation to a new level. Blockchain helps to make transactions more transparent, which increases trust between their participants, while augmented reality technologies improve customer service. However, their implementation increases contextual complexity, risks, and competency requirements, and necessitates a commitment to ongoing innovation, learning, and development. Innovative products should be developed on the basis of real-time monitoring of customer needs. The vision of future business models relies on advanced forecasting tools based on artificial intelligence and cognitive technologies. “Adopting a digital agenda is not a matter of choice, but a necessary aspect of an effective strategy,” concluded the speaker.

Anastasia Stepanova (HSE) presented the results of a study illustrating how complexity factors affect corporate financial decisions, in particular on investing in innovation. Different types of institutional investors were studied, and their influence on companies’ innovation activity expressed in the amount of corporate R&D expenditures and the number of registered patents. The analysis was based on rejecting the assumption of rational behaviour of all economic agents - consumers, investors, and top managers. Companies’ innovation development is explicitly spiral in nature, since the same processes are repeated in a cyclic manner, taking into account corporate management decisions and investors’ reaction to them; as technology develops, they move on to the next stage. In general, “grey” investors (those who have close ties with company management) make an appreciable negative impact on innovation activity, while independent and strategic investors have a pronounced positive effect. The complex dynamics of interaction between various types of investors (depending on their respective share among stakeholders) and the management is a common driver which determines the pace and vector of companies’ innovation development. The observations presented by the speaker can be useful for both entrepreneurs, and the authorities responsible for shaping innovation policy.

Shinu Vig (Symbiosis International University, India) discussed corporate strategy development in the situation of facing grand challenges and technological complexity. Particular attention was paid to complex, intricate problems, solving which requires an interdisciplinary approach. Such problems have a complex, multifaceted nature, and are frequently intertwined with technological complexity, since many solutions include making use of new technologies (artificial intelligence, etc.), and require constantly mastering new knowledge as they emerge. Making decisions about developing such technologies, one must at each stage take into account both the opportunities and risks associated with using them. Finding answers to complex problems requires “getting down to the roots”, which involves considerable time and patience to stay on track moving towards the big goal you’ve chosen. Success along this path provides a chance to make transformational changes that will benefit society on a global scale.

The presentation by Marcus Anthony (Beijing Institute of Technology, China) was focused on a pressing issue which is about to enter the mainstream: “How to develop deep meanings of the future in the digital era?” The concept of “digital wisdom” proposed by the speaker goes beyond the widely discussed digital skills. It relies on three aspects: self-awareness, understanding other people, and the capabilities and limitations of technology. Digital wisdom is relevant to both formal and informal education, at work and in everyday life. Prioritising inner wisdom in balance with rationality can help mitigate the “cognitive shocks” of the growing contextual complexity and unpredictable change. One of the digital wisdom pillars is the development of “integral intelligence” which blends IQ, emotional, interpersonal, and certain other types of intelligence. In the development of such meta-competencies the author of the presentation saw a chance to overcome the semantic collapse in the digital society.

Yusuke Kishita (University of Tokyo, Japan) spoke about advanced computer tools for building sustainable development scenarios. Increasingly more organisations have demand for them: those seeking to accomplish the Sustainable Development Goals, adopt the circular economy model, and pursue other similar priorities on the current agenda. Scenarios help to cover many factors which need to be taken into account when designing long-term strategies, including the state of the economy, lifestyle, technology development, political situation, complexity, uncertainty, etc. Advanced Industry 4.0 technological solutions, in particular artificial intelligence, help to build scenarios more efficiently. The laboratory at the University of Tokyo headed by the speaker is also engaged in these studies.

Using the example of a scenario building project commissioned by Japanese cities to assess the prospects for the proliferation of electric vehicles, the speaker showed how such tools work in practice. They help to conduct an in-depth analysis of expert reports difficult for laymen to understand, and transform them into clear diagrams of cause-and-effect relationships between different aspects of the problem, and the proposed solutions. Artificial intelligence technologies such as ChatGPT increase scenario building efficiency by making plot templates, which are subsequently adjusted and enriched by experts. A three-dimensional classification model of various scenario approaches was presented, depending on the planning horizon, the level of participants’ involvement, and the use of technological tools. In general, the speaker did not recommend switching exclusively to digital tools to conduct foresight studies, emphasising their purely auxiliary role. A live dialogue between participants, and the exchange of diverse opinions should remain the basis of such studies.

Speakers' presentations

The event was organized in the framework of a research grant funded by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (grant ID: 075-15-2022-325).