Foresight and STI Governance, 2022 (3) http://foresight-journal.hse.ru en-us Copyright 2022 Mon, 12 Sep 2022 13:44:00 +0300 Exploring the Top-Priority Innovation Types and Their Reasons https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/en/2022-16-3/722059263.html This is a foresight study to explore the top priorities of innovation types and the reasons behind them with respect to artificial intelligence (AI), big data, and the Internet of Things (IoT). This study set up two research strategies. One of the research strategies is to make the research design and methods fit with this study’s intellectual queries. Another strategy is to use the triangulations of method, analysis, data source, and researcher. This study selected expert panels, the Delphi technique, and interviews. In the collection of the qualitative and quantitative data from 23 experts through the Delphi surveys, it organized respectively the qualitative and quantitative data analysis. This study conducted the two main data analyses–Delphi results and interview data. Service innovation of AI and process innovation of IoT are chosen as a top-priority-innovation type. Marketing innovation of big data, as non-technological innovation, is selected as a top-priority innovation type. Through the interviews with 17 experts, for each of the pairs, all the experts said that the three technologies can have greater technological capabilities going beyond the existing capacities of relevant technologies. AI as hyper-intelligence can help to provide more customized or sophisticated converging offerings, the regulation of various non-standardized services and service provisions through the interaction between AI and customers or employees. The technological capacity of big data and the need of customer preferences can lead marketing innovation. IoT can create the new or improved process of the manufacturing, production, and supply chain areas through hyper-connectivity in terms of quality, quantity, speed, and coverage of information. Scenarios of Systemic Transitions in Energy and Economy https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/en/2022-16-3/722059414.html For the energy economics sector, earlier forecasting approaches (e.g., a Kaya identity or a double-logarithmic function) proved too simplistic. It is becoming necessary to systemically include the emergence of new discrete evolutionary changes. This paper provides a novel quantitative forecasting method which relies on the Global Change Data Base (GCDB). It allows for the generation and testing of hypotheses on future scenarios for energy, economy, and land use on a global and country level. The GCDB method envisages systemic variables, especially quotients (such as energy intensity), shares (such as GDP shares, energy mix), and growth rates including their change rates. Thus, the non-linear features of evolutionary developments become quantitatively visible and can be corroborated by plots of large bundles of time-series data. For the energy industry, the forecasting of sectoral GDP, fuel shares, energy intensities, and their respective dynamic development can be undertaken using the GCDB method. Consistency Principle: Theory and Empirical Evidence https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/en/2022-16-3/722061060.html The article verifies one of the principles of the general theory of social development, which is called the principle of consistency. According to this principle, the economic growth rate positively depends not only upon the level of technological development, institutions, and culture, but also upon the degree of consistency between these factors. This hypothesis was tested by constructing econometric models on a sample of 154 countries. The output variable is the rate of GDP growth, and the explanatory factors are technology, institutions, and culture. To quantify the latter, the corresponding proxy variables were used: labor productivity, the Doing Business index, and the Corruption Perceptions Index. The constructed models are fixed-effect models, and the coefficients of the explanatory variables are determined by adjusting the variance-covariance matrices. Empirical evidence has confirmed the validity of the principle of consistency for the group of “rich” countries with upper middle income, and have not been confirmed for the group of “poor” countries with lower middle income. The obtained result was interpreted in terms of the concept of a narrow corridor called Acemoglu–Robinson, the concept of structural competition and the theory of self-organization. It is shown that the consistency principle acts as a necessary condition for the appearance of the Red Queen effect in the Acemoglu–Robinson concept. Research Landscape and Trends in Corporate Foresight https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/en/2022-16-3/722061179.html Corporate Foresight (СF) gains increasing research interest as an efficient decision-making tool in the face of growing market uncertainty. We carried out a bibliometric analysis of the CF literature published between 2001 and 2021. The results of bibliometric analysis propose in which journals researchers should publish their papers to obtain more citations, which to cite, which keywords to use, and which references to explore. This allows managers, researchers, and practitioners to gain in-depth knowledge of CF literature. The Impact of Product and Process Innovations on Productivity: A Review of Empirical Studies https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/en/2022-16-3/722061311.html This article draws attention to insufficient research interest in the empirical assessments of the impact of product and process innovations (PPI) on economic performance. The analysis of the relevant studies for 2000–2022 found significant international and intersectoral differentiation of the considered linkages between innovation and productivity. It revealed limitations for the meaningful interpretation of the array of results accumulated in the literature. The author emphasizes the importance of an integrated multi-perspective approach to assessing the possible impact of PPI on various aspects of enterprise and industry performance when planning public innovation policy. For example, minor product innovations can make a tangible positive contribution to a company's sales growth, but have no impact on labor productivity at all. The impact of a radical resource-saving process innovation will look doubtful if it is evaluated only on a short time interval. The author concludes that it is expedient to revise established views on industrial technological innovations and develop new approaches to their measurement. The Contradictory Role of Corruption in Corporate Innovation Strategies https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/en/2022-16-3/722061532.html This study considers the influence of the work experience of Russian top managers on the willingness to stimulate innovative processes in companies, including using at a certain stage some corruption schemes to bypass bureaucratic barriers.Using a logit model based on enterprise surveys carried out by the World Bank, data on managers of small and medium-sized businesses were analyzed.It was revealed that the presence of "corruption competencies" has a positive effect on the innovative activity of enterprises in developing countries. This effect is due to the fact that corruption in such countries acts as a mechanism to reduce transaction costs associated with innovation. The level of corrupt activity of managers increases as they accumulate experience due to the high degree of bureaucratization and the weakness of institutions, which turn into time and financial costs for enterprises. In the short term, corruption can accelerate the development of innovation, but cannot serve as a permanent tool in this regard, since its long-term consequences turn out to be extremely negative. Financial Inclusion as Enabler for Innovation in Banking https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/en/2022-16-3/722061656.html Using evidence from Spain, this study assesses the readiness of the banking sector of the EU to introduce technological and social innovations to implement the European policy of financial inclusivity. Despite the evident benefits for banks in terms of enhancing legitimacy and improving consumer knowledge and loyalty, mostly banks at present merely comply with the formal aspects of financial inclusion regulation, but are not going further in terms of technical or social innovation, using compliance to avoid the "stick" of regulation. In contrast, a review of the banks’ own corporate social responsibility strategies shows a higher level of commitment and innovation in terms of financial inclusion. Based on the analysis of institutional factors that determine the involvement of banks in the inclusivity policy, recommendations are proposed for adjusting development strategies in order to combine the efforts of the public and private sectors in the provision of public services.