Foresight and STI Governance, 2019 (2) http://foresight-journal.hse.ru en-us Copyright 2019 Mon, 24 Jun 2019 19:57:21 +0300 Technological Development, Changes on Labor Markets, and Demand for Skills https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/en/2019-13-2/289419092.html The introductory article to the special issue systematizes the main topics addressed in the special issue papers, such as the impact of technological development on the future of labor markets, changing needs in professional competencies and approaches to developing skills in demand at the level of individual, firm and regional level. Mapping the Future of Occupations: Transformative and Destructive Effects of New Digital Technologies on Jobs https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/en/2019-13-2/289421283.html We investigate the impact of new digital technologies upon occupations. We argue that these impacts may be both destructive and transformative. The destructive effects of digitalization substitute human labor, while transformative effects of digitalization complement it. We distinguish between four broad groups of occupations that differ with regard to the impact of digitalization upon them. “Rising star” occupations are characterized by the low destructive and high transformative effects of digitalization. In contrast, “collapsing” occupations face a high risk of destructive effects. “Human terrain” occupations have low risks of both destructive and transformative digitalization, whereas “machine terrain” occupations are affected by both types. We analyze the differences between these four occupational groups in terms of the capabilities, which can be considered bottlenecks to computerization. The results help to identify which capabilities will be in demand and to what degree workers with different abilities can expect their occupations to be transformed in the digital era. Общие и специальные навыки как компоненты человеческого капитала: новые вызовы для теории и практики образования https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/en/2019-13-2/289422575.html Human capital theory in recent decades has become the basis for educational policy in many developed countries. Expert discussions, however, often undervalue research findings and developments related to this theory that since the 1970s have consistently enriched understanding of how human capital contributes to personal well-being and socioeconomic development of society as a whole. Educational policy lags behind these elaborations, which leads to a decline in the impact of education upon development worldwide. In the 21st century, fundamentally new trends in socioeconomic dynamics pose unprecedented challenges for educational systems around the world, including Russia. Despite the quantitative growth of money and time spent on education, performance per unit of education costs has fallen. The human potential, created by education, is facing more and more difficulties in its capitalization: economic growth is slowing down at both at the country level and globally. This situation brings to life new attempts to claim insignificance of education for economic growth and for individual success. So far, these attempts have not been very influential in educational policy, but in many countries, such arguments already serve as a backdrop for budget decisions that are detrimental for education. Educational systems need to complement practices that contribute to the development of human capital. In this regard, several theoretical elaborations that have not yet became part of the mainstream discussion on human capital, could be helpful for understanding the role of human capital in socioeconomic progress and possible ways to improve it in the short and long term. Twenty-First Century Skills in Finance: Prospects for a Profound Job Transformation https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/en/2019-13-2/289423486.html This paper analyzes the impact of breakthrough technological areas, such as artificial intelligence (AI), big data, the internet of things, and blockchain upon on conventional banking professions and skill sets. Our conclusions are based upon a large array of data collected over the course of a survey of top personnel conducted in 2017-2018 using text mining, case studies, and expert interviews. The changing requirements for workers and their competences were assessed taking into account the level of technological development (including use of relevant products and services by Russian and international companies) as well as the probability of certain professional skills being substituted by automated solutions in the medium term. The results indicate that technologies’ impact upon various functional segments of banks’ operations is varied. While most of the analyzed professions are evolving towards broader functionality, others are sliding into the “obsolete” group. In the next few years, automated systems will take full responsibility for data collection and its initial analysis, though they will not replace bank personnel fully given that they simply remain tools that help boost workers’ productivity and efficiency, extend the information base, accelerate decision-making, cut costs, and reduce risks. Coworking Space: A Window to the Future of Work? https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/en/2019-13-2/289424383.html This paper analyzes how the organization of work has changed since the 1990s including the emergence of digital forms of employment. Following the evolution of work over the course of the 20th century and the start of the 21st, this paper is divided into three sections: the adoption of industrialization, automation and digitalization, and, finally, the virtual economy. Each of these periods correspond with a certain model of production: Fordism, Taylorism, and Uberism (or Waymoism, named for Google’s Waymo project), which lie at the basis of the organization of work (process management, project management, and joint or cooperative activity) and present different sets of skill requirements. During the discussion of the evolution of work organization, including its geographical and temporal aspects, how attitudes of the individuals towards work have changed over time is discussed. Finally, the concept of coworking is analyzed as it forms the cultural foundation for virtual work. Due to the continuing nature of this research, this article presents only the initial results. This paper aims to determine how coworking spaces impact the socioeconomic development of emerging and developed regions. Fourteen in-depth interviews with managers of coworking spaces in a variety of regions serves as the empirical basis of this research over the course of periods of one and two months. Regional Emergence of Start-Ups in Information Technologies: The Role of Knowledge, Skills and Opportunities https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/en/2019-13-2/289425623.html We investigate the regional emergence of new information technology start-ups in Germany. The largest share of these start-ups is located in cities or densely populated regions that are well equipped with institutions of higher education and research. The empirical analysis clearly indicates the critical role of industry-specific knowledge plays for new. Hence, strengthening the regional knowledge base should be a key policy that aims at stimulating entrepreneurship in this sector. The Industry 4.0 Induced Agility and New Skills in Clusters https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/en/2019-13-2/289425847.html The fourth industrial revolution (Industry 4.0) transformed global value chains by transforming them into adaptive networks of enterprises. To remain competitive, companies need to integrate themselves into these networks, which require increased flexibility in terms of reorganizing business structure and expanding the portfolio of competencies. This article attempts to find ties between the concepts of Industry 4.0 and clusters. This new viewpoint helps one discern the role clusters play in the development of necessary skills as part of this nww context. Spatial proximity provides unique opportunities for such interactions, which cannot be imitated by remote digital technologies. As a result, clusters, while meeting certain requirements, will not lose their relevance in the context of Industry 4.0, but, on the contrary, become its key driver. The Risks of Digitalization and the Adaptation of Regional Labor Markets in Russia https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/en/2019-13-2/289426456.html The implementation of new automation technologies together with the development of artificial intelligence can free up a significant amount of labor. This sharply increases the risks of digital transformation. At the same time, certain regions and cities differ greatly in their ability to adapt to future changes. In this article, we seek to determine the capabilities of Russian regions to reduce risks and adapt to digital transformation. The literature stipulates that there are several factors able to reduce these risks. First of all, they are associated with retraining, ICT and STEAM-technologies’ development, the promotion of economic activities that are less subject to automation. As a result of econometric calculations, we identified several factors that contribute to the new industries’ development (in our case, ICT development), and, accordingly, increase regional adaptivity. These factors  include diversification, the concentration of human capital, favorable entrepreneurship conditions, the creative potential of residents, and the development of ICT infrastructure. We identified several regions with high social risks and low adaptivity, which are mainly the poorly developed regions of southern Russia, where entrepreneurial risks are high, STEAM specialists are not trained, shadow economy is large. This work contributes policy tools for adaptation to digital transformation. The Risks of Digitalization and the Adaptation of Regional Labor Markets in Russia https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/en/2019-13-2/289430618.html To thrive in the modern world, people need to make sense of complex issues and deal with uncertainty. This requires a different kind of knowledge than schools are teaching. We argue that cultivating a theoretical turn-of-mind is critical for identifying causal relationships and patterns within any phenomenon and trend. In this paper, we introduce a course designed to engage students in an “intellectually honest” version of scientific theory building. We describe four theory-building competencies that students developed as a result of their participation in the course and highlight the features of instruction that may have played a key role in this development. We describe how a particular feature of the course - the theory-building discussion - helped students refine their thinking and we outline the moves the teacher used to facilitate the refinement process. We conclude that learning to construct theories is beneficial even for students who are not tending towards careers in science, as it helps to refine everyday thinking, and, in a broader sense, build human capacities to develop solutions for the complex problems we face across economics, environment, health, and many other domains. The Role of Human Capital in Science, Technology and Innovation https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/en/2019-13-2/289431536.html As a result of the transformation of the labor market, the constant development of human capital has become crucial. This paper considers the role of human capital in professional development through the prism of 16 semi-structured interviews with both Russian and foreign graduates of a master’s program focused on training experts in the field of science, technology, and innovation. Most of the graduates of the program found jobs in the corporate sector and at research centers, but among the interviewees, there were also representatives who chose self-employment or public service. The contribution of undergraduate and master’s degrees to the professional development of these interviewees was assessed and they noted that if studying at the undergraduate level contributed primarily to obtaining subject knowledge, then studying at the master’s level contributed to the development of missing competencies and the opening of new professional opportunities. Interviewees identified emotional and social intelligence as key skills in their professional development and noted the critical importance of digital skills and subject knowledge. In turn, the most popular way of training, in the opinion of respondents, is online education.