Following the impetus to continuously renew itself, Foresight and STI Governance works on contributing to the discussional search for scarce and hard-to-access knowledge that makes the complex process of transformation (of sectors, economies, businesses, communities, etc.) accessible and inspiring to master. The journal focuses its research interests on critically important nuances that determine the success or failure of transformational transitions. This topic is discussed at the forefront of science, and Foresight methods are used in managing transformational transitions.
This year, following the tradition, the editorial team gathered experts on this subject from different continents to discuss a more localised topic — “Transformational Transition to a New Model of Development.” Friends, authors and readers of Foresight and STI Governance from different countries and continents joined the event as discussants.
This year, the event represented two parts of the world — Europe (Italy) and Southeast Asia, which dynamic transformational strategies inspire us with tangible results. Although this phenomenon is obscure for the mainstream media, in the real world everything looks more than attractive both in terms of the scope and the boldness of the reforms.
The transformational vectors of the countries represented by the speakers — Italy, Russia, China, and Indonesia (as well as Japan and South Korea) — certainly break the mold and provide valuable lessons of transformation that cannot be obtained in any other way.
Angelo Leogrande (Universitat Libre de la Mediterranea, Italy) presented a unique case of a successful transformation using the example of an Italian company Tecnomulipast, located in an inert, stagnant environment where the level of resistance to innovation is extremely high. The transformational transition to Industry 4.0 and 5.0 is a major challenge for companies of all sizes, especially in the absence of a certain maturity, necessary for profound transformations. Advanced technologies, including AI, do not guarantee results companies strive to achieve if their management models and corporate culture are not adapted to an increasingly complex context.
In other words, the transformational transition that Tecnomulipast has gone through teaches us that the main challenge lies not in the lack of technology, ideas, or even financial support (the company's transformation was funded by a regional government programme), but in changing the corporate mindset and walking away from the “beaten track” — the legacy of the past — as well as introducing innovative business models, developed around paradoxical strategies. However, the top of this list crowns the ability to provide “fail-safe” arguments for decision makers. Tecnomulipast was able to become a success story, when the only true and convincing justifications were found. In the situation when the chances of a successful transformation were almost zero, they are the ones that made it possible. The case presented changes the idea of how to eliminate system limitations, demonstrates how it is possible to break out of the previous paradigm and our tendency to get stuck in the beaten track, and reveals the new nature of the potential for an upward trend.
Pavel Rudnik (HSE ISSEK) spoke about the prospects in the development of artificial intelligence (AI) as a result of embedding this technology in people's lives, economics and public administration. The speaker presented interim results of a special HSE ISSEK Foresight project, which horizon is unusually short for a Foresight study (until 2030), but intense, given the ultra-high emergence rate of new AI solutions. After surveying technology companies and users on the matter of their implementation of AI and its prospects, paying special attention to their fields of activity, the research team identified top priority technologies and necessary competencies. Three main multi-level trends were outlined: the proliferation of personal AI assistants, the introduction of smart enterprise management systems, and the transition of public administration from standardised “on-demand” services to personal and proactive public and corporate services.
The discussion participants shared the common understanding that the key role in preparing for and undergoing transformations lies in the domain of the educational system, which itself has to go through transformation and prepare a new class of professionals with sets of competencies that enable adequate response to complex, interdependent crises.
In this sense, the case studies of universities in China, Japan, and South Korea, presented by Marcus T. Anthony (Beijing Institute of Technology in Zhuhai, China), are the best example to highlight hidden aspects of the ongoing transformational transitions. Today, local education systems are shifting away from the Western model, by creating alternative ontological and pedagogical foundations for profound transformations. Three key aspects were highlighted — a new type of pedagogical relationship, ethical self-improvement and self-renewal as ways of transformational interaction. If we look at them through the lens of a Causal Layered Analysis, we can see a “return” to the ideological and mythological foundations that reveal the strengths of a civilizational identity.
It is the skilful interweaving of tradition and innovation that makes transformation a win-win strategy in an era of radical global change. During transformations, we witness the paradigmatic shift from mechanistic cognition to metamorphic learning, which promotes the development of a holistic perception of reality, systemic awareness and empathic insight as the basis for a sustainable future for humanity.
In this context, the subject of a pre-emptive build-up of specific potential, preceding the launch of a transformational transition, is particularly relevant. To implement such processes, humanity needs competencies of a different level, far beyond those that are being developed by the contemporary education system.
Irina Ilina (Institute of Regional Economic Research, Moscow) analysed the key components of the specific potential for transformational transitions using transformation of the urban environment as an example, that could be projected onto other socio-economic systems. Based on empirical materials from Japanese and European cities, key patterns affecting the results of the transition were revealed. Differences in cultural contexts have proved to be a latent factor that led either to a failed or a successful transformational transition. In cultures based on community-conscious values, as illustrated by the Japanese case, people have stronger commitment to the unity of purpose, adherence to norms and the shared vision of the future. With such prerequisites, it is easier to achieve a consensus (a determinant of a successful transformation), the whole process goes smoother and faster and is not perceived as radical, although in fact it is. A different picture is observed in individualistic societies represented by the Dutch case. Individualism manifests itself in a variety of multidirectional interests, which makes reaching consensus a task of increased complexity requiring significant time and other resources.
In the 21st century, despite unprecedented technological progress, and with the exception of countries that share a common cultural and mental code, societies still need powerful wake-up calls that challenge their existence in order to quickly and consistently engage in transformation. In other cities that lean towards democratic beliefs and where the population does not face a common existential threat, transformations are being stalled. They stagnate, are put on hold or trimmed down. Transformational transitions may straddle several generations and require codirectional efforts that go beyond the time horizon and capabilities of enterprises or governments.
Pavel Sorokin (HSE Institute of Education) continued the topic of special competencies necessary for profound transformations. He revealed a “productivity paradox” of the education system, analysed the reasons why transformations fail and offered his vision of how to unlock the potential of “human transformers”. The theory of neo-structuration proposed by him has great potential in solving this complex and large-scale problem. “Transformational transition” requires certain qualities, but they are not being developed by “classical” educational programmes. At the same time, these qualities do not naturally appear as the person accumulates experience. The human factor, not the technological factor, is the one that plays a crucial role in transformational processes. Fundamentally new metrics and other approaches to assessing human development are needed but developing them is not a trivial task. Among the solutions that develop transformative thinking and behaviour Sorokin sees the narrative approach and the use of digital technologies, which potential has not yet been revealed.
The dynamic transformation processes taking place in Indonesia were a real discovery for the participants of the event. Aghnia Putri (Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia & Coventry University, UK) shared her experience of the ongoing national digital transformation. The country has a highly promising “demographic dividend” — over 70% of the population is of working age. However, the economic situation is characterised by high unemployment and the concentration of labour resources in the informal, grey economy sector. The qualifications of the workforce do not meet the changing needs of the market. The potential of the “demographic dividend” is projected to peak by 2035 and then decline. The authorities have taken a preventive step and introduced innovative management. Training the working population in high-demand digital competencies will help prevent this unfavourable scenario. The ongoing government programmes will provide training for an additional 4 million highly qualified specialists, which will increase the competitiveness of national companies. It will be possible to create adaptive digital solutions that match the specifics of the local context, use its strengths and form inclusive innovative ecosystems for more efficient and sustainable digital development. Thus, Indonesia skilfully uses the demographic “window of opportunity” and technological breakthroughs in its great transformational transition to a fundamentally different level of future prospects.