Keywords
foresight
multi-criteria decision analysis
portfolio modeling
How to Cite
Abstract
The paper investigates an experience of accounting a range of diverse viewpoints when dealing with major objectives of Foresight — priority-setting, networking and consensual vision-building. The relevant practice has a special meaning in contexts characterized by technological discontinuities and high uncertainties.
The basic method in this case is the Scanning of Weak Signals. The authors propose to increase the performance of this tool by focusing on promising innovative ideas that will provide more focused, action-oriented, and comparable reflections of future developments. For the analysis of such ideas it is recommended to use a collaborative foresight method — Robust Portfolio Model (RPM) Screening. It envisages several phases, including generation, revision, multi-criteria evaluation, and portfolio analysis of innovative ideas.The paper presents the experience of Finland where this method was employed to enhance the operation of the ongoing Foresight Forum. Encouraging results from this project suggest that RPM Screening can be highly effective in foresight processes and the development of shared research agendas.
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