Identifying robust ecosystem identities through scenario-based wind tunneling

Abstract

Scenario-based foresight has become an important analytical approach for exploring the long-term evolution of innovation systems and entrepreneurial ecosystems under conditions of uncertainty. However, many scenario exercises remain primarily descriptive and provide limited guidance regarding the systemic orientation that socio-economic systems can realistically sustain across multiple plausible futures. This study addresses this limitation by applying the Identity Wind Tunneling approach to examine the robustness of alternative ecosystem identities across contrasting future environments. The analysis is conducted using the Ecuadorian entrepreneurial ecosystem as an empirical case. Building on a previously developed scenario architecture describing five possible trajectories of ecosystem development toward 2040, five candidate ecosystem identities were evaluated through an identity–scenario compatibility matrix. The analysis considered four structural dimensions that characterize both ecosystem identities and scenario environments: governance coordination, innovation capability, financing structures, and market integration. Identity robustness was assessed by examining the number of scenarios in which each identity remained viable. The results indicate that an innovation-driven entrepreneurial ecosystem demonstrates the highest level of robustness across the scenario set. By extending Identity Wind Tunneling from the organizational level to the ecosystem level, the study introduces the concept of robust ecosystem identity as a foresight-informed framework for guiding long-term ecosystem development under uncertainty.