Long-Term Science and Technology Forecasting: Methodologies, Future Visions, Scenarios of Development

Abstract

The paper considers methodological aspects of long-term technology forecasting with reference to modern economical development of Russia. It describes a matrix of long-term scenarios of technological development of Russia based either on primary-energy or innovation-active orientation of the national economy. The paper also provides the forecasts of promising technologies in several priority sectors in the framework of the scenario of local technological leadership that is more preferable for Russia. Finally, it considers different kinds of risks (technological, administrative, political) that should be included in long-term forecasts.